‘Badly educated, hugely bad’: World Bank’s ED Mishra in row over GDP data

World Bank Executive Director Neelkanth Mishra. File

World Bank Executive Director Neelkanth Mishra has called claims that India’s economy grew 2.6% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up from 7.8%, as “uneducated” and “absolutely wrong”.

Mr Mishra’s statement on X came amid a political row over the growth data released by the government, which was disputed by former finance minister SC Garg.

“…I was shocked to see ignorant and wildly incorrect claims by some that if the ‘original’ June-2025 base was used, growth in the June-2026 quarter would have been much lower,” Mr Mishra said.

Mr. Garg claimed that the current price of GDP last year was ₹ 86 crore, which was revised to ₹ 80 crore, and if this had not happened, the GDP growth would have been only 2.6%.

“As expected, with fiscal headwinds fading and monetary headwinds (decreasing credit growth to 1HFY26) becoming tailwinds (credit growth accelerating), GDP growth is surprising to the upside and should help push consensus estimates of trend growth to 7 percent plus. This means that with a neutral fiscal and monetary policy, it still registers monetary policy,” Mr. Mihra7 said.

He said the new series introduced in February 2026 cleaned up the data and also significantly improved the methodology.

“For those who follow it for a living (and I was as recently as 45 days ago) – the downward revision in the base was known in March… the new series has increased the credibility of the actual production estimates,” Mr Mishra said.

“This claim is so patently wrong that several logical rebuttals have already been made. But bad information tends to spread further than good, so it is important to reiterate and reinforce this argument,” said Mr Mishra, who was until recently chief economist at Axis Bank.

“That such claims have taken hold is surprising in itself, given that easily observable and unfalsifiable indicators of economic activity have been so robust,” he said, without naming Mr Garg.

Mr. Mishra said the June quarter figures were strong and momentum had picked up.

He said shipments of passenger vehicles (cars, SUVs) rose 35 percent year-on-year in August, despite only 9 percent growth in exports.

Even two-wheeler growth is now over 20% and commercial vehicle shipments are up over 40%.

Mr. Mishra said tax collection growth has picked up meaningfully and credit growth has continued to surprise, albeit on a low base.

“Last year, most believed that the weak credit growth at the time was a demand issue, while we persistently argued that it was a supply issue – it has been resolved for now,” he said, adding that construction indicators were robust.

“Hopefully, now that there is clear evidence of investment, fewer people will ask why private sector investment is weak,” he said.

Mr. Mishra said there was still slack in the economy, as evidenced by weak real wage growth, and it may take several quarters of above-trend growth before it tightens and sticky inflationary pressures return.

Published – 03 Sep 2026 12:46 IST