Subnormal September rains boost harvest, inflation threatens

New Delhi: As the southwest monsoon enters its final phase, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for September, raising concerns over kharif crop yields, food inflation and rural demand.

India is likely to fall below 91% of its long-term average (LPA) in September, the IMD said on Monday. The September LPA, based on the climatological record from 1971-2020, is 167.9 mm.

Many parts of the country are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the month. However, parts of northwest, northeast, east, east, central and southeast India are likely to see normal to above normal rainfall, the Met office said.

Precipitation was 35.4% below normal in June, 1% above normal in July, and 16.3% below normal in August. The country received 213.3 mm of rainfall in August against the normal 254.9 mm. Cumulative rainfall across the country from June 1 to August 31 was 603.7 mm, 13.8% below normal.

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“Strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions are expected to intensify further in the coming months,” IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

During September, the monthly average maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some parts of northwest, midwest and northeast India where they are likely to be normal to below normal.

The IMD downgraded its June-September monsoon forecast to 90% LPA from 92% on May 29, citing El Niño conditions. India last experienced sub-normal monsoon in 2023 when rainfall was 95% of LPA. The department also expects the August rainfall itself to remain below normal at less than 94% of the LPA.

Inflation risks

Experts said another spell of poor rainfall could hit kharif crops and vegetables, hurting farm incomes, rural demand and food prices.

“IMD’s below-normal September outlook is worrying as the monsoon has already been volatile this season with the red sharply in deficit, July improved briefly and August slipped back into deficit,” said Anjal Prakash, professor of public policy at FLAME University, Pune. “If September rainfall remains light, the stress will be felt most in rain-fed agriculture, particularly in paddy fields, pulses and oilseeds, where moisture availability is critical for the grain-filling stage.”

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Deficit rainfall could also delay preparations for rabi cultivation in some regions and increase inflationary pressure on food, especially vegetables and edible oils, Prakash said. He added that weak farm income could also affect rural demand.

India’s retail inflation accelerated to 4.45% in July, driven by higher food and fuel prices, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation on 12 August. Food inflation reached 5.52% in July, up from 5.32% in June.

In August, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut its inflation projection to 5% from 5.1%, but highlighted risks from a likely sub-normal monsoon amid El Niño conditions, volatile energy prices and potential knock-on effects from higher input costs.

According to Mohapatra, subnormal rainfall can damage agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability, besides increasing the risk of heat stress in several regions. Early preparedness measures – including water conservation, efficient resource management and agricultural emergency planning – by relevant agencies and stakeholders can help mitigate these impacts, he said.

The southwest monsoon accounts for more than 70% of India’s annual rainfall, while about 45% of the country’s net sown area remains rainfed. A good monsoon supports rural demand, while poor rainfall weighs on consumption.

Sowing under pressure

In its August bulletin, the RBI said a deficient and patchy monsoon amid El Niño conditions posed some risks to the outlook for the agricultural sector and rural demand.

India’s kharif crop acreage remained below last year’s level as of August 28, with sharp declines in rice and maize sowing offsetting gains in pulses, according to weekly crop coverage data from the agriculture ministry.

The total area under the main kharif crops stood at 107.1 million hectares as of August 28, down 1.9 million hectares from 109 million hectares in the same period last year. Rice, the country’s main kharif crop, accounted for the biggest decline at 41.4 million hectares compared to 42.8 million hectares a year earlier. Corn acreage fell to 8.99 million hectares from last year’s 9.38 million hectares, a decrease of 388,000 hectares.

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While acreage risk has reduced, yield risk has also increased, said Gurudas Nulkar, Director, Center for Sustainable Development, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics (GIPE), Pune. “September moisture deficit can reduce yields, which could affect prices. September rainfall also determines soil moisture during the October-November period. This affects sowing prospects for the Rabi season.”