Andhra Pradesh and another El Niño challenge

At the review meeting, Andhra Pradesh Home and Disaster Management Minister V. Anitha emphasized the need to disseminate weather information down to the village level to minimize crop losses. Photo: X/@Anitha_TDP

Much before El Niño formed over the Pacific Ocean, Andhra Pradesh got a bitter taste of what was to come. In May, the state experienced oppressive heat, endless warm nights and intense heat waves. Towns and villages wore a deserted look as daytime temperatures remained above 44°C for nine consecutive days, with the season’s highest reaching 48.3°C.

In addition to bringing back unpleasant memories of previous El Niño events in the state, the record temperatures heralded unsettling weather characterized by light rainfall and more heatwaves. Even on 12 July 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Amaravati issued a heat wave warning for the state.

This is the third time in the last 10 years that the state’s preparedness has been tested, the first two being in 2015 and 2023. In 2015, which witnessed a strong El Niño event, heat waves killed at least 2,300 people in the country, with Andhra Pradesh alone accounting for 1,369 deaths.

Whenever the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean rises above 2°C, meteorologists declare it a “very strong” El Niño event. Between 1951 and 2025, this threshold was crossed four times – in 1972, 1982, 2015 and 2023 – according to IMD experts.

Meteorologists believe there is a high probability of another strong El Niño event this year.

Test monsoon

An overall below-normal monsoon has been forecast for Andhra Pradesh, with isolated areas showing a chance of normal to above-normal rainfall, indicating the likelihood of low pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal. But that is only a possibility.

The state receives most of its rainfall during the southwest monsoon, especially in August and September, when El Niño is expected to gain strength. While the state fell on a forecast of near-normal rainfall in June, July began on a slightly dry note.

According to the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, the state received 86.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and July 11, compared to the normal 149.1 mm, representing a deficit of 42.2%. Apart from two districts that reported normal rainfall, 26 out of 28 districts reported either deficient or mostly deficient rainfall, presenting a grim picture.

The state’s long-term average annual rainfall is 858 mm, but this year’s total is projected at 690 mm, a variation of around 20%, again double the variation seen in the state in recent El Niño years. According to APSDMA, negative deviations in recent El Niño years have ranged between 4% and 11%.

Impact mitigation

The immediate impact of deficit rainfall is on the farming community and farming activities. In 2023, 54 mandals were declared drought-affected, while at least 6.96 lakh farmers suffered losses in 103 of the state’s 688 mandals.

The government has started preparations. At the review meeting, Andhra Pradesh Home and Disaster Management Minister V. Anitha emphasized the need to disseminate weather information down to the village level to minimize crop losses. But there’s a problem: the agriculture department issues warnings and advisories to farmers based on agro-climatic zones. Academics have labeled the haphazard clubbing of areas with zones of different properties. This can lead to a mismatch between the advice provided and the ground reality of farmers. The government’s goals cannot be achieved unless the structural problems are resolved.

The Agriculture Department has started advising farmers to switch to drought-tolerant crops in the rain-fed areas of Rayalaseema to overcome the crisis. However, there have also been questions about farmers’ willingness to switch to these crops.

The state appears to have learned the lessons of 2015 by significantly reducing heatstroke deaths. In 2023, the number of recorded deaths has drastically reduced to three. However, ensuring that farmers receive timely weather warnings remains a weak link.

It remains to be seen whether the government’s preparedness will remain on paper or help mitigate the effects of a global event.

Published – 13 Jul 2026 02:00 IST