Team Punjab Kings (ANI Photo) With 15 games left in the league, LSG and MI are already out of playoff contention and DC are barely hanging in there. RCB, SRH and GT would do really badly from now on if they don’t make the playoffs and PBKS also remains in a good position to get there despite Monday’s loss. CSK and RR have a better chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points, albeit jointly. KKR have slim chances. There are 32,768 possible combinations of results left, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining in the race.
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Mahela Jayawardene reflects on MI’s disappointing IPL 2026 campaignLet’s look at the probabilities:
- RCB have an 88.4% chance of finishing in the top four on points (including possible ties in one or more of those spots) and a 59.4% chance of being in the top two
- SRH’s chance of finishing in the top four on points is only marginally lower at 88.1% and they have a 59% chance of finishing in the top two
- GT have an 88.2% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points, but their chances of finishing first or second, individually or collectively, are a touch higher than RCB and SRH at 60%
- Monday’s loss dropped PBKS’ chances of finishing in the top four in points to 64.4%, and they only have a 28.2% chance of finishing in the top two.
- At 53.8%, CSK have a more than even chance of making the top four, but only a 22% chance of finishing in the top two
- RR have a slightly lower 53.6% chance of finishing in the top four and only an 18.5% chance of capturing one of the top two slots
- KKR have a paltry 13.5% chance of making it to the last four, but even now they can finish in the top two on points, although there’s only a slim 3.7% chance of that
- With Monday’s win, DC kept their playoff hopes alive, but just barely, with a 3.2% chance. At best, they can finish third with a tie anywhere between two to four other teams
How we arrive at probabilities: There are 32,768 possible combinations of results left, with 15 matches to go. For each team, we looked at how many of them finished in the top four, either individually or in a tie. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team in the top two either individually or together. For example, RCB will finish in the top four out of 28,980 possible combinations of match results, giving them an 88.4% chance of being in the top four, individually or jointly.
