India is likely to experience a warmer-than-normal summer in the upcoming March-May 2026 season, with above-normal maximum temperatures forecast in most parts of the country, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, some parts of northwest and central India may experience normal to sub-normal daytime temperatures during the season, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press briefing.
Above normal hot days are also expected in most parts of the country including West Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, South and East Maharashtra, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh during May, some northern interior parts of North Karnataka.
Night temperatures are also expected to remain above normal in most regions except parts of southern peninsular India and areas of the rest of the country where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
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Specifically, for March, maximum temperatures are likely to remain normal to below normal in many parts of India. In contrast, northeast India, adjoining eastern regions, parts of the western Himalayan region and parts of central and peninsular India are expected to experience above-normal daily temperatures.
Minimum temperatures in March should be above normal in most of the country. Exceptions include parts of northwest India, the southern peninsula and areas along the east coast where normal to below normal night temperatures are likely.
The scientists said that no adverse impact on the crop of wheat, which has the largest sown area in the rabies season, is expected under the prevailing weather conditions and that the weather forecast for March is also favorable for the crop. “The average mean temperature remains within the optimum range required for wheat growth. The current climatic conditions are considered favorable to ensure stable yields and good grain quality,” said Ratan Tiwari, Director, Indian Wheat and Barley Research Institute, Karnal.
According to scientists, daytime warmth mixed with cool nighttime temperatures helps maintain an optimal growth cycle. “If such conditions persist, farmers can expect better productivity and better grain quality, raising hopes for a strong wheat harvest this season,” Tiwari added.
Sowing of rabi or winter crops in India has increased by more than 1.58 million hectares to 67.68 million hectares in 2025-26 (as on January 30), according to data released by the agriculture ministry. Sown area is 2.4% larger than a year earlier. The average coverage of the season is 63.78 million hectares.
The expansion in sown area was largely due to wheat, rice, pulses and oilseeds. Wheat coverage increased by 613,000 hectares, while the area planted to rice increased by 27,000 hectares from the previous year. The total area of wheat and rice reached 33.42 million hectares and 4.5 million hectares.
Pulses recorded a total increase of 503,000 hectares, mainly due to a sharp increase of 498,000 hectares under gram. The total area of legumes reached 13.95 million hectares. The area of oil crops, led by rapeseed and mustard, also expanded to 9.72 million hectares, 352 thousand hectares more than last year.
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Rain forecasts
March is likely to bring normal to above normal rainfall in many parts of the country. However, northeast India and some areas of northwest and east central India are expected to experience below normal rainfall. The Long Period Average (LPA)) of precipitation over the country as a whole during March based on data from 1971–2020 is 29.9 mm.
Mohapatra also added that India is likely to experience an above-normal number of hot days during March to May, especially in eastern and east-central India, large parts of the southeast peninsula and some areas of northwest and west-central India.
The seasonal anomaly forecast suggests that while these regions may face an increased frequency of heatwaves, the rest of the country is likely to experience a normal number of heatwave days during the period. In March specifically, isolated areas of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are expected to experience above-normal heat days. In the rest of the country, heat wave activity is likely to be within normal limits during the month.
Public health risks
The IMD warned that the increased likelihood of heat conditions could pose significant risks to public health, water resources, energy demand and essential services, particularly affecting vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, outdoor workers and individuals with pre-existing health conditions.
Increased temperatures can lead to heat-related illnesses and put additional strain on infrastructure and resource management systems. “State and district administrations are therefore advised to ensure early preparedness, including operational readiness of cooling shelters, adequate drinking water supply and enhanced health surveillance,” Mohapatra said.
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