West Asian crisis threatens 12 million jobs in India, Green shift may offer hope, study says | Today’s news
The crisis in West Asia caused by months of US-Iran war has the potential to threaten millions of livelihoods in India while creating millions of new opportunities in the near future.
In its newly launched peer-reviewed study, “Paving a Green Transition: A New Social Contract Amid West Asia Crisis,” IPE Global warns that nearly 10 to 12 million livelihoods are at risk in key sectors in India, arguing that a decisive green transition could turn this moment of uncertainty into a catalyst for long-term economic resilience and green transformation.
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The report argues that India’s challenge is not a lack of political ambition. India already has a large ecosystem of schemes, including PM-KUSUM, National Green Hydrogen Mission, Production Linked Incentives (PLI), Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), PM Pranam, RDSS and Agri Stack, but these continue to operate in silos.
The report proposes sectoral convergence across agriculture, energy and industry to unlock the full economic, employment and climate potential of this existing ecosystem.
“The crisis in West Asia has revealed how closely linked energy security, food security, livelihoods and climate resilience are, and our analysis shows that addressing them in isolation is no longer the answer,” said Ashwajit Singh, Founder and CEO of IPE Global.
The report proposes sectoral convergence across agriculture, energy and industry to unlock the full economic, employment and climate potential of this existing ecosystem.
IPE Global Limited is an international development organization providing innovative solutions to anchor the development agenda to create a better world for all.
“The fact that India can mobilize a financial cushion of US$42-53 billion within its own scheme architecture – without waiting for external finance – speaks to the maturity of our institutions and the strength of domestic solutions. This is what self-sustaining, sustainable development looks like in action: an Indian organization, drawing on India’s political architecture, charting a path from which the rest of the Global South can learn,” Singh said.
The study argues that the states most exposed to job losses in West Asia – Kerala, Bihar, UP – are not always the states with the highest capacity to absorb green jobs, as green jobs cluster around renewable subsidies (Rajasthan, Gujarat) and industrial corridors (Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra).
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It also finds that the current setup creates a problem of geographic mismatch: the most vulnerable workers and jobs created are not always in the same place, which has direct implications for skills, migration policy and where green investment should be prioritized (eg accelerating PM-KUSUM and natural agriculture specifically in UP and Bihar to absorb local job losses, rather than relying solely on national job creation).
State wise pattern
The states most exposed to job losses in West Asia – Kerala, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh – are not always the states with the highest capacity to absorb green jobs, as green jobs cluster around renewable subsidies (Rajasthan, Gujarat) and industrial corridors (Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra).
The states most exposed to job losses in West Asia – Kerala, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh – are not always the states with the highest capacity to absorb green jobs, as green jobs cluster around renewable subsidies (Rajasthan, Gujarat) and industrial corridors (Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra).
This creates a problem of geographic mismatch: the workers most at risk and the jobs created are not always in the same place, which has direct implications for skills, migration policy and where green investment should be prioritized (e.g. accelerating PM-KUSUM and organic farming specifically in UP and Bihar to absorb local job losses rather than relying solely on national aggregate job creation).
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“The numbers tell a story that India cannot afford to ignore. With 85 percent of our oil imported and 10 to 12 million livelihoods in agriculture, energy and industry exposed to a single geopolitical shock from West Asia, this fragility is real,” said Abinash Mohanty, head of climate change and sustainability at IPE Global and lead author of the study.
America’s war with Iran
The US-Iran agreement to extend the ceasefire between the two countries is now in effect.
On June 17, President Donald Trump formally signed the agreement — which is expected to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz — while attending the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France.
The crisis in West Asia has revealed how closely linked energy security, food security, livelihoods and climate resilience are, and our analysis shows that addressing them in isolation is no longer possible.
The 14-point deal, known as the Memorandum of Understanding, says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and also commits to providing $300 billion for the country’s “reconstruction and economic development” — although the U.S. is not obligated to contribute.
The deal comes nearly four months after the conflict between the countries began days after Israel attacked Iran.
