(Bloomberg Standing) – Soon in the first term of President Donald Trump, there was a lot of talk about whether his xenophobic statements and immigration restrictions would decimate tourism to the US. In the end, not really.
The number of international US visitors in the first few months dropped slightly after the office in January 2017, but reports of a significant decline for the rest of the year proved to be a product of programming errors in airport kiosks. As soon as it was clarified, the figures showed that the International Arrivals in 2017 increased after a year ago. In February 2020, just before the Covid-19 Pandemie began to close everything in the US, the number of international visitors increased by 2.8 million, ie 3.7%, just before Trump became president.
With the exception of other such data errors – which seems unlikely, because unlike 2017, American customs and border protection show a similar decline as those from the American International Trade Administration I use here in my graphs – this time it seems that this time there is a negative effect of trumps. This January to July this year, the number of international visitors to the same period in 2024 fell by 1.6 million, ie 4%, and the American Travel Association for the whole year is reflecting a decline of more than 6%.
This should not be a huge surprise, given the ban on traveling from 19 countries; Interventions against the necitizers who say things that Trump’s administration do not like; a sudden move (blocked by courts for the time being) to prevent international students from participating in Harvard; Immigration raid for battery race in Georgia co -ownership South Korean car Hyundai; And a deportation dragon that maintains the capture of foreigners who are legally here.
This means that the main driving force still seems to be less such movements than Trump’s tariff war with Canada and the threat to make the nation 51. The number of international visitors from countries other than Canada is actually this year, but the Canadians canceled it and others.
More precisely, the number of visitors from overseas (ie everywhere except Canada and Mexico) is slightly decreasing and some key countries that many people usually send to the US – Germany, South Korea, France, India – send less. The Trump effect is therefore evident in more than Canadian travel and is particularly remarkable because the dollar has fallen this year compared to most foreign currencies, which is a development that usually stimulates tourism. However, the decline is not across the album, while 12 of the 25 countries that sent most visitors this year in 2024 in 2024 and visited Mexico more than a million.
US international visitors are mostly tourists. Of the foreign visitors in 2024, 84% were on tourist visas, 12% of business visas and 4% student visas – although they often visit the family on tourist visas from Latin America and the Caribbean, rather than seeing monuments. In general, Canadians do not need visas to enter the US, so there are no equivalent statistics for them. Mexicans need visas, but international trade administration has disorders only for those who arrive by air, of which 87% were tourists in 2024, 12% for business and 1% of students.
Foreign students are of greater economic importance than their relatively small number suggests because it is months, rather than weeks or days, and often pay a lot of tuition fees. What’s more, those who stay in the US after graduation sometimes end up with important scientific discoveries, operate large corporations or otherwise contribute in a large way. The first signs of the visitor’s data point to a sharp decline in the number of foreign students in the new academic year. The number of students of students-Visa dropped 19% in August compared to August 2024 and is 12% to date, with Asian countries controlling most of the decline.
Foreign students could have huge negative long -term effects if they persisted, but expenditures of foreign visitors of all kinds amounted to only 0.71% of gross domestic product in the second quarter, 0.73% last year, so this is not a short -term economic problem for the US. However, the decline in travel offers a hint of burden that the chaotic second administration of President Trump is deposited across the US economy. During his first term Trump’s Blumus, he eventually had a little influence on traveling to the US, because for most visitors it had no impact on the experience of the arrival here. It is still not for most, but there are enough worrying stories that make the wheels that provide future US travel. This and Canadians are really crazy.
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Justin Fox is a publicist Bloomberg, which includes business, economics and other topics involving graphs. He is the former editorial director of Harvard Business Review, the author of the “myth of the rational market”.
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(Tagstotranslate) International visitors
