US President Donald Trump has made a remarkable claim: that Iran, despite its bellicose public rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz, is privately desperate to reopen the waterway it closed after US strikes.
Trump says economic pressure is driving Iran’s shift
In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump suggested that Iran’s public stance on closing the strait masks a deeper financial urgency. According to him, the economic toll from stopped oil flows is increasingly unsustainable for Tehran.
“Iran doesn’t want the Strait of Hormuz closed; they want it open so they can make $500 million a day (which is what they stand to lose if it’s closed!),” Trump wrote.
He further characterized Iran’s rhetoric as performative, aimed at preserving domestic and regional credibility rather than reflecting its true strategic intent.
“They just say they want to shut it down because I have it totally BLOCKED (CLOSED!) so they just want to ‘save face,'” the president added.
Back channel signals and diplomatic pat
Trump also claimed that informal contact from mediators indicated a potential shift in Iran’s approach. This communication, he suggested, indicates a desire in Tehran to restore shipping through the strait.
“Four days ago, people approached me saying, ‘Sir, Iran wants to open the strait immediately,'” he said.
But the US president warned against easing pressure too early, arguing that reopening the waterway without concessions would weaken Washington’s negotiating position.
“But if we do, there will never be a deal with Iran unless we blow up the rest of their country, including their leaders!” Trump has stated and emphasized his tough approach to the ongoing crisis.
A ceasefire in Iran has been extended as talks collapse
In a parallel development, Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, just a day before it was due to expire. The decision followed the collapse of planned talks, with Iranian officials refusing to attend, citing what they described as unacceptable US demands.
Trump said the blockade of vessels moving to and from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place even as the military escalation is temporarily suspended.
Vance Trip canceled because Tehran refuses to negotiate
The extension of the truce coincided with a significant diplomatic setback. Vice President JD Vance was scheduled to travel to Pakistan to resume indirect talks with Iranian officials – but Tehran refused to attend, citing what it described as unreasonable US demands.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency was unequivocal, saying there was currently no prospect of Iran participating in the talks. A White House official confirmed that Vance’s trip will not take place on Tuesday.
Shifting signals from Washington DC
The announcement marked a marked shift in tone from earlier remarks by Trump, who had hinted at the possibility of immediate military action if Iran did not meet US conditions.
“I expect to bomb,” he said in an earlier interview, adding that the military was “reluctant to leave.” Just the day before, he described it as “highly unlikely that I would extend” the ceasefire without progress in the negotiations.
The sudden pivot to an extended ceasefire reflects the fluid and unpredictable nature of the standoff, with both sides balancing military pressure and diplomatic maneuvering.
Markets react like oil slides to news of a ceasefire
Financial markets reacted quickly to Trump’s ceasefire announcement. Oil prices fell more than $3 on the news as traders recalibrated the risk of an imminent military escalation. Stock futures, which had been under pressure during the day, recovered most of their earlier losses after the announcement – a sign that markets were pricing in a meaningful likelihood of renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf.
