Author: Tim McLauglin and Laila Kearney
(Reuters) -outher California Edison’s internal fire predictions underestimated the potential size of the Eaton Canyon fire in Los Angeles by a factor of ten on the days that lead to a deadly fire in January.
Miss suggests potential weaknesses in the ability to model fire modeling usefulness that dealt with its response to January fire threats, although they were upgraded with improved computing, data sets and artificial intelligence.
At that time, the western side of Los Angeles near Santa Monica and Eaton Canyon was walking in the east, consuming more than 34,000 acres (13,750 hectares) – or about 53 square miles – or approximately 53 square miles – turned the whole neighborhood to the ashes.
Although no official cause for the Blaze Eaton Canyon Blaze was released, numerous litigation claimed that the SCCs were the decision to maintain strength to some lines and the towers in the Altadena area led to the circumstances that caused it.
SCE said the cause and circumstances around the fire were investigated and will be for some time and will prevent their modeling skills.
“We are convinced of our modeling of fire and weather forecasts,” said Raymond Fugere, director of Asset Intelligence SCE, Reuters agency in an interview.
Fugere said that SCE simulation could show higher estimates for acres burned in hard areas. Variations in wind samples and available fuels in areas with hard affecting may not have been fully counted in modeling of fire, he said.
“But overall we feel confidently with our modeling, because it gives us very special information so we can decide,” he said.
SCE simulations predicted the ignition of January 7 in Eaton Canyon, which could burn about 1,000 hectares to eight hours without suppression of fire, according to the forecast of the fire potential acquired by Reuters through an application for public records. SCE told Reuters that the simulation of fire was taken into account by the decision to close the use of usefulness, because strong seasonal winds and dry conditions escalated the imminent threat of fire.
Eaton’s fire on January 7th lit as a forecast, but eventually consumed about 14,000 acres, destroyed around 9,400 houses and buildings, and killed 17 civilians – making it the peak of one of the most expensive natural disasters in American history.
Joseph Mitchell, a scientist and a fire -based fire expert, said that the predictions of the SCCs missed the brand mainly because its models were carried out only by simulations that extend eight hours after ignition. Most Eaton Fire damage became well after an eight -hour mark.
Michael Wara, a politics expert Wildfire at Stanford Law School, said that fire modeling could also do because it is better tuned to simulate fire in dense shrubs and forests, instead of blocks of houses and businesses.
“Altadena was about 20 minutes of wilderness fire and then became a city fire … where houses burn houses down and where gardens are a type of fuel not … mixed coniferous forests,” Wara said.
SCE, the Edison International unit, acknowledged that it evaluated changes in its fire risks, including whether to use a 24 -hour fire simulation in the future.
“January 2025 fires raise important issues concerning the spread of fires to a built -in urban environment,” said the company 16 May 16 at regulatory bodies.
SCE has previously acknowledged that 24 -hour simulations could capture more extreme events where firefighting resources are limited, according to regulatory submissions with the California Commission for Public Services before fires. But Fugere SCE said that longer simulations create more uncertainty.
The SCE prognosis was the largest test of the predictions so far, as California Governor Gavin Newsom launched “Wildfire Innovation Sprint” – an initiative to support the use of AI to predict disasters and life and property.
Since then, SCE has built four clusters of supercomputers capable of generating 13 billion simulations in 400 weather scenarios and 29 million ignition points, according to regulatory submissions.
The company also began to use the services of Technonylva, A La Jolla, a California company, which in 2019 received $ 383,000 for the development of forecasting tools for public services and emergency respondents.
Bryan Spear, CEO of Technosylva, told Reuters that his risk models had captured the size of a fire in Los Angeles five days in advance, which allowed firefighters to prepare better for the imminent disaster.
SCE equipment was not accused of starting massive Palisades, but the prognosis of usefulness also underestimated its potential size. Separate flame began on the same day as the fire of Eaton Canyon Fire.
The SCE forecast assumed up to 1,000 acres according to the Pacific Palisades document.
The real destruction of the fire included 23,448 acres of burned, 12 civilian deaths and almost 7,000 structures destroyed, according to Cal Fire.
Together, Eaton and Palisades have destroyed more than 16,000 structures and caused most of $ 250 billion in economic losses of estimated ACCUWEATHER companies.
SCE plans to spend another $ 8 million on the modernization of fire science and modeling this year, out of $ 2 million in 2018, shows the company’s publication.
(Reporting Tim McLaughlin, Editing Deepa Babington)
(Tagstotranslate) Fire forecasts
