Who will rule the Arctic? The growing power struggle between Russia, China and the US | Explained

The Arctic is becoming a new area of competition between the world’s major powers. US President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for Greenland to become part of the United States have brought the region into the spotlight. But the struggle for influence in the Arctic is much older, Russia has held a strong position there for decades.

The Arctic is becoming increasingly important due to its strategic location, military value, shipping routes and natural resources. Climate change is also making parts of the region more accessible and increasing the interest of countries far beyond the Arctic.

Russia: The dominant Arctic power

Russia has the largest Arctic presence of any country. It controls roughly half of the land and half of the maritime exclusive economic zone north of the Arctic Circle. About two-thirds of the people living in the Arctic are also in Russia, CNN reported.

The region alone contributes only about 0.4% of the global economy, CNN quoted the Arctic Council as saying. Yet Russia accounts for roughly two-thirds of the Arctic’s GDP.

Moscow has also spent decades building up its military presence. According to Simons Foundation research, Russia has 30 military sites in the wider Arctic, along with hundreds of other defense installations and bases.

Russia’s Arctic military power is partly centered around its nuclear submarine fleet. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) says Moscow has invested heavily in modernizing these submarines in recent years. Russia has also developed its radar, drone and missile capabilities in the region.

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However, Russia currently does not have the military capabilities to match NATO’s capabilities. Western countries are concerned about the extent of Moscow’s Arctic presence and how rapidly it has expanded in recent years.

NATO: The Growing Counterbalance

The Arctic has not always been a major source of tension between Russia and the West. After the Cold War, the region became an area where both sides could cooperate.

The Arctic Council was established in 1996 to promote cooperation between eight Arctic states – Russia, USA, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. His work has focused on issues of the environment, biodiversity and the rights of indigenous communities.

He also attempted security cooperation. Russia attended two high-level meetings of the Arctic Defense Chiefs Forum before its participation ended following the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

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Relations deteriorated further after Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Most forms of Arctic cooperation between Russia and Western countries have since been suspended.

The entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO in 2023 and 2024 changed the balance even more. The Arctic is now broadly divided between Russia and NATO, creating a new strategic fault line between Moscow and the Western alliance.

USA: Why does Trump want Greenland?

Greenland has become one of the most controversial parts of the Arctic power struggle due to Trump’s repeated claims that the US “needs” the island for national security.

Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, a member of NATO and a close ally of the USA. Trump claimed that Denmark does not have enough military power to protect Greenland from Russia and China.

The island is strategically important due to its location between North America and Europe. Its location also makes it valuable for monitoring military activity and securing access to the Arctic and North Atlantic.

But security is not the only reason for US interest.

China: “Near Arctic State”

China has no territory inside the Arctic, but Beijing has made clear its interest in the region.

In 2018, China described itself as a “state close to the Arctic” and promoted the idea of a “Polar Silk Road” linked to Arctic shipping.

China’s interest is partly linked to trade and energy. As melting ice opens up new sea routes, Beijing could gain a shorter link between Asia and Europe.

China has also strengthened its relations with Russia in the Arctic. In 2024, the two countries conducted a joint Arctic patrol as part of wider cooperation.

This added another layer to Western concerns, especially as Russia and China converged in other strategic areas.

Why is the Arctic becoming more important?

The biggest change in the Arctic is due to climate change.

The region is warming at about four times the global average. Sea ice is rapidly disappearing, changing an area that was once extremely difficult to access.

For scientists and environmental groups, this is a serious warning. Melting ice threatens the ecosystems, wildlife and communities that depend on the Arctic environment.

But governments and businesses also see new possibilities.

Less sea ice could make it easier to use Arctic shipping lanes and reach valuable mineral deposits.

Transport: Shortcut between Asia and Europe

The Northern Sea Route, which runs along the northern coast of Russia, and the Northwest Passage, which follows the northern coast of North America, become increasingly accessible during the summer.

The Northern Sea Route could cut the journey between Asia and Europe to about two weeks – about half the time it takes to go through the Suez Canal.

Russia has increased its use of the route from 2022, mainly to move oil and gas to China after Western sanctions restricted its access to European markets.

The Northwest Passage also saw more traffic. Through departures, it has increased from just a few each year in the early 2000s to up to 41 in 2023.

A third trip across the North Pole could eventually be possible if enough ice disappears. However, such a development would also have serious environmental consequences and could accelerate global warming.

Greenland: A mineral treasure?

Greenland attracts attention for another reason: its natural resources.

The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland states that the island may contain deposits of coal, copper, gold, rare earth elements and zinc.

Rare earth minerals are particularly important because they are used in many modern technologies and are considered strategically important by major economies.

However, obtaining these resources would be far from easy. Many of the deposits are located in isolated areas above the Arctic Circle, where mining is extremely difficult and expensive due to Greenland’s thick ice sheet, harsh weather and long periods of darkness.

Why is the Arctic important to the world?

The Arctic is no longer just a remote, frozen region. It is becoming a strategic crossroads where military power, trade, energy, minerals and climate change intersect.

Russia already has a major advantage due to its geography, infrastructure and military presence. NATO has strengthened its position by bringing Finland and Sweden into the alliance, while the US is paying more attention to Greenland.

China, meanwhile, wants to play a role in a region where it has no territory but sees growing economic and strategic opportunities.

Therefore, the Arctic is becoming a new arena of competition between superpowers. Ironically, the same climate change that is making the region more accessible is also creating environmental risks that could make the plant increasingly dangerous.