Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli strike on Sunday, casting doubt on the Islamic republic’s future and raising the risk of regional instability.
Iran’s state television and state news agency IRNA announced the death of the 86-year-old man on Sunday.
Khamenei’s death created a leadership vacuum, given the absence of a known successor and because the supreme leader had the final say on all major policies during his decade in power.
US President Donald Trump, who announced his death hours ago, said he had given Iranians the “biggest chance” to “take back” their country by opposing the Islamic leadership that has ruled the nation since 1979.
However, even if Iran’s top leaders were killed, regime change is not guaranteed because Khamenei, who has reportedly chosen three likely successors, would favor the most hard-line fanatics in an effort to “purify” the regime, the Middle East Institute, a Washington, DC-based research institution, noted.
Read also | Israel attacks Iran LIVE: ‘Khamenei killed in his office,’ Iranian media confirms
Who is Mojtaba Khamenei? Will he be the next Supreme Leader?
Mojtaba Khamenei, the second eldest son of the slain supreme leader, is the central cleric and rumored successor. He has close ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Mojtaba served in the armed forces during the Iran-Iraq War and is said to have influence behind the scenes as his father’s gatekeeper.
However, according to a New York Times (NYT) report last year, Khamenei identified three potential successors — three senior clerics. The NYT report said his son Mojtaba is not in the game, despite long being considered the frontrunner.
Why is Mojtaba unlikely to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
Mojtaba has a number of hurdles to overcome to become Iran’s next supreme leader, according to the Middle East Institute; the highest are the constitutional requirements.
The Islamic Republic’s constitution, the 88-member Assembly of Experts, appoints Khamenei’s successor – someone with “political experience” according to the law.
According to the institute, Mojtaba is failing due to the fact that, despite holding the office of supreme leader, he had de facto no formal political roles in the regime.
Mojtaba, as the next supreme leader, goes against Shia Islamic convention, which states that the bloodline for the mantle is exclusively reserved for the 12 divinely ordained Shia Imams.
In 1989, Khomeini’s influential son Ahmad was elected supreme leader by the same convention. In 2023, Khamenei said in a speech that “dictatorship and hereditary rule are not Islamic,” according to the US-based Stimson Center think tank.
In 2024, Ayatollah Mahmoud Mohammadi Araghi, a member of the group that elects the leader, shared two specific instances where the Supreme Leader interfered in their investigation into Mojtab’s leadership case. “The leader said, ‘What you’re doing is suspecting a hereditary leadership problem.’ So the investigation was not allowed,” Araghi said.
On another occasion, when they asked Khamenei for permission to investigate a person related to him, Araghi said: “He replied, ‘No, draw a line behind this issue.’
The institute therefore said Mojtáb’s selection could lead to confusion, which is in stark contrast to the smooth transition Khamenei had in mind when he shortlisted his successors last year.
The Middle East Institute also said that Khamenei’s own ambitions for the future of the Islamic Republic could also likely lead to Mojtaba not being chosen as a successor.
