Who is Marine Le Pen? Why betting markets are bullish on her winning French presidency in 2027 amid unrest in France

Betting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen’s chances of winning the French presidential election in 2027. The prediction comes as France continues to be rocked by massive nationwide protests against the cost of living.

Since the protests began, Kalshi’s business activity on who will be the next French president has intensified.

Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, hailed by US President Donald Trump as the “conservative voice” of France, will win France’s 2027 presidential election, jumping to more than 50 percent from 39 percent in the past month.

She set a new all-time high on October 20, when Kalshi became the most popular candidate to win the next French presidential election with a 53 percent chance, according to Politico.

On Kalshi, “Yes” for Marine Le Pen traded at 54 cents (IST) on Thursday, followed by 16 cents for Édouard Philippe and 11 cents for David Lisnard.

As of 9am on Thursday (October 22), the market believes there is a 54 percent chance of Pen winning the polls. Around July 8, Penová gained a huge lead over Philippe. Since then, her chances of winning the next election have been increasing.

On September 26, just days after the protests began, speculators were placing a 44.7 percent chance that David Lisnard, the current mayor of Cannes, would become the country’s next president. Those chances came just a day after he held a major campaign rally for the presidential race.

Polymarket course: current status for 2027

Traders valued Marine Le Pen at 48.3 percent to win the election on April 18, 2027, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 20 percent, David Lisnard at 11.8 percent and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 10 percent.

Le Pen’s price is 90 percent to reach the second round. The probability that President Macron will leave office before December 31, 2026 is 4 percent.

These Polymarket rates reflect market sentiment and do not represent a forecast. Prediction markets do not create crypto assets or determine cryptocurrency prices.

The French presidential election will be held on April 18, 2027.

Who is Marine Le Pen?

Marine Le Pen (58) is a far-right leader in France.

A French court convicted her of graft in March 2025. She was initially banned from politics for five years, but this year an appeals court cleared the way for her to run for President Emmanuel Macron in 2027.

According to the Associated Press, Marine Le Pen, seen as the favorite in next year’s election, has sought to turn anger over the unrest into support for her presidential bid, presenting herself as an alternative to a government she has described as powerless.

She has repeatedly criticized the escalating civil unrest, cementing it as a key message in her campaign, arguing that leadership under Emmanuel Macron’s centrist government contributed to the conditions behind the protests.

“We are facing a state that is collapsing,” Le Pen told FranceInfo on Wednesday. “In the last few days we are facing a government that has effectively lost control and can no longer maintain control,” she said, blaming the violence on “far-left rioters” and “suburban thugs”.

In a post on social media platform X on October 18, following some of the worst unrest in the country in years, she said: “You saw yesterday our cities, our streets, our country, abused, abused, looted.”

“We are experiencing a deep crisis of trust, of authority, which poses a threat to democracy. This observation must warn us: our country is caught in a vice, or even held hostage, between violence and powerlessness,” added Le Pen.

France’s unrest has overshadowed Macron’s final months in office

Emmanuel Macron, a centrist, has entered the final stretch of his decade-long presidency as France faces a wave of intense protests that show little sign he can prevent a candidate from the political extremes from succeeding him.

The center-right president is barred by the constitution from seeking a third consecutive term and entered the crisis with his lowest approval rating since taking office in 2017 — even below the level seen during the “yellow vest” protests against social injustice and inequality that began in 2018, the AP reported.

France is grappling with a number of crises, including high public debt, anger over soaring prices and the rise of the far right. The riots broke out on Saturday (17 October) after around half a million people across France turned out to condemn the cost of living after four weeks of school protests.

Violence erupted on the fringes of demonstrations on October 17, prompting authorities to impose local curfews in parts of Paris and other cities, including Lille, Lyon and Nice. Marseille also imposed restrictions on gatherings and demonstrations.

On Tuesday, the government scheduled another series of emergency meetings, including talks with representatives of major social media platforms. Negotiations with the unions were scheduled for Wednesday.

According to media reports, more than 2,400 people were arrested and nearly 1,000 police officers were injured during the weekend riots. Some protesters were seriously injured. In the city of Mulhouse in the east of the country, a 17-year-old girl lost an eye. In Saint-Etienne, a 17-year-old boy shot his hand off with a grenade, AFP reported.

More protests await us

France’s main student union and the “yellow vest” movement, a grassroots protest movement whose agitations over fuel prices have rocked the country in 2018 and 2019, have called a rally on Saturday.

The union has also called a strike for November 5 over the cost of living and cuts to public services.