President Donald Trump offered starkly conflicting signals on Monday about the trajectory of the US-Israeli war against Iran, first suggesting the campaign was “very much finished, pretty much” before warning hours later that US forces could escalate their attacks if Tehran tried to disrupt global energy supplies.
Trump suggests that the war may be coming to an end
Earlier Monday, Trump appeared to indicate that the campaign had already reached much of its goal. In a telephone interview with CBS reporter Weijia Jiang, the president characterized the operation as largely complete.
“The war is ‘very total, pretty much,'” Trump said. He added: “We are very far ahead of schedule.”
The remarks briefly calmed global energy markets, which had been rattled by fears that the conflict could spread across the Middle East. Oil prices, which had risen overnight on fears of supply disruptions, fell after the talk.
However, the apparent signal of de-escalation proved short-lived.
which one is it? Trump replies “you can say both”
Later in the day, after financial markets had closed, Trump took a more combative tone during a gathering of Republican lawmakers in Florida.
“We won in many ways, but not enough,” Trump told the audience. “We are moving forward more determined than ever to achieve the final victory that will end this long-standing danger once and for all.”
Speaking to reporters again on Monday night, the president warned of dire consequences if Iran’s leaders tried to block global oil flows, particularly through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
“We’re going to hit them so hard that neither they nor anyone else who helps them will ever come back to that part of the world,” Trump said.
Asked if the war could end within days, the president offered a vague timetable: “No.” He only added “soon, very soon.”
Meanwhile, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth appeared far from signaling an end to the Iran war, stressing that the campaign had only just begun.
Oil prices rise and then retreat as markets digest conflicting signals
Volatility on Trump’s news was reflected in global commodity markets. The international benchmark oil price, which hovered below $70 a barrel last month, briefly jumped to nearly $120 late Sunday before retreating after the Group of Seven nations said they were actively exploring intervention to stabilize prices. Another drop came after Trump’s morning remarks to CBS, with the benchmark finally closing below $90.
Trump claimed in an interview with CBS that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened to shipping — a claim vehemently denied by international mariners who reported the waterway remained effectively closed. The president also said he was “thinking about taking her over,” though the White House did not specify what such a move would entail.
Iran names new supreme leader as US-Israel airstrikes continue
As the conflict entered its tenth day, US and Israeli forces have carried out more than 3,000 airstrikes, according to Trump’s own figures, killing around 1,300 people in Iran, according to Iranian officials. Israeli military sources put the death toll at more than 1,900. Iranian retaliatory attacks in the wider area killed more than 30 people.
In a development that drew public ire from Trump, Iran’s senior clerics formally named Mojtaba Khamenei — the son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war — to succeed his father. Trump has previously declared any such appointment “unacceptable.” “I was disappointed,” he said Monday, “because we think this is going to lead to another of the same problems for the country.” When asked whether Mojtaba Khamenei might meet the same fate as his father, he refused to answer directly.
The appointment was celebrated by Iran’s military and hardline political establishment, although in Tehran itself, opponents reportedly chanted “Death to Mojtab” from their windows overnight – a reflection of widespread, if carefully suppressed dissent.
The Trump-Putin call raises questions about Russia’s role in the conflict
In a major diplomatic development, Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday – the first such exchange since the outbreak of the Iran war. The Kremlin said the call lasted around an hour and Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov described it as “sincere” and “businesslike”. Ushakov said Putin presented Trump with “several proposals” to end the conflict.
Russia’s status as a key Iranian ally has caused considerable concern in Washington. White House envoy Steve Witkoff told reporters on Saturday that he had communicated directly with Russian officials that sharing intelligence with Iran would be unacceptable. Trump has played down the prospect of Russian aid to Tehran, though the administration’s public statements on the matter have remained measured.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi celebrated the rise in oil prices on social media, calling the allied attack on his country “Operation Epic Mistake” and warning: “We have many surprises in store for us too.”
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi separately confirmed on state television that France, China and Russia had come together to discuss possible terms of a ceasefire. The White House did not respond to requests for comment on those contacts at the time of publication.
Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are drawn into the widening regional conflict
The regional dimensions of the conflict continued to expand on Monday. According to President Joseph Aoun, Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed nearly 500 people and displaced more than 600,000. Israeli forces pushed into southern Lebanon in response to rocket fire from Iran-backed Hezbollah militants and bombarded strongholds in the country’s south.
Saudi Arabia announced it had intercepted drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting the kingdom’s vast Shaybah oil field, the capital Riyadh and a Saudi air base. In Bahrain, the state-owned energy company declared force majeure, saying it could no longer honor existing contracts due to ongoing fighting and a recent attack on its refinery complex.
Turkey said a ballistic missile fired from Iran was intercepted by NATO air defenses on Monday – the second such incident in six days. Turkey’s Defense Ministry said a previous Iranian missile launched on March 4 targeted the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey. Iran has denied that it deliberately targeted Turkish territory and has yet to publicly comment on Monday’s incident. Under the NATO treaty, an attack on one member state constitutes an attack on all — a threshold that Western officials have not yet publicly invoked.
In Israel itself, an Iranian missile attack killed at least one person on Monday morning, according to Magen David Adom, the country’s emergency medical service, bringing the Israeli death toll since the outbreak of the war to at least eleven.
Iran shows no signs of capitulation despite Trump’s demands
Tehran has not shown that it will accede to Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender. With a new supreme leader installed, Iran’s military apparatus continues to fire missiles and drones at neighboring states, and its foreign ministry officials publicly boast about the economic damage it has caused to global energy markets.
What has been conspicuously absent — despite more than a week of intense aerial bombardment and mounting casualties on all sides — is any coherent public statement from Washington on what a post-war settlement might look like or what conditions Iran would have to meet for an end to hostilities.
