Supporters of the LDF, UDF and NDA gather at Peroorkada in Thiruvananthapuram on the last day of open campaigning ahead of the first phase of the Kerala local body elections in 2025. File Photo | Photo credit: Nirmal Harindran
The 2021 Kerala Assembly elections saw a historic victory for the Left Democratic Alliance, breaking the age-old tradition of rotation between Left and Center parties in the state every five years. As Left strongholds in West Bengal and Tripura fell, the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections showed a pro-incumbency trend and brought the ruling LDF back to power.
Let’s see what the trends from the 2021 assembly elections indicate and what it means for the upcoming Kerala assembly elections 2026.
The results
In the 2021 Kerala Legislative Assembly elections, the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) secured a historic victory by winning 99 out of 140 seats.
The LDF also won more seats than in the 2016 parliamentary elections, improving significantly after its poor performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The LDF succeeded against other coalitions in both general and SC reserved seats, but its vote share in ST reserved seats was slightly lower than that of the UDF.
But UDF achieved victory over LDF in vote share exclusively in urban areas. In other regions, the LDF either had a slight lead in semi-urban and rural areas or was significantly ahead in semi-rural zones.
Sharing votes
The LDF registered a vote share of 45.28% (94,07,662 votes), up from 43.35% in the 2016 assembly polls. Additionally, the front got 10.73% more votes than in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The UDF won 0.78% more votes in the 2021 elections than the previous one, but saw a decline of 7.87% compared to its performance in the Lok Sabha elections.
Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA lost its only seat (Nemom) in the State Assembly, with its vote share falling to 12.47%.
Key battles in 2026
With the 2026 Assembly elections set to witness a close contest, several key regional battles are also unfolding across the state.
In Kottarakara, the defection of CPI(M) leader Aisha Potty to the Congress poses a challenge to LDF’s KN Balagopal, the finance minister. The Nemom Assembly constituency is gearing up for a contest between BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar and sitting MLA and minister V Sivankutty. Vattiyurkavu is expected to witness a tight contest with LDF’s VK Prasanth against Congress’ K. Muraleedharan and NDA’s R. Sreelekha. In Pala, LDF ally Jose K. Mani of the Kerala Congress (Mani) is struggling to recover from the defeat.
Manjeshwaram also presents a close triangular contest.
In Vadakara, the LDF is determined to win back the seat, targeting the legacy of TP Chandrasekharan, with KK Rema leading the opposition. Meanwhile, KK Shailaj’s transfer from Mattannur to Peravoor pits her against Congress leader and KPCC president Sunny Joseph, testing her public support.
Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan is likely to face pressure in Paravur while CPI(M) leader Kadakampally Surendran seems to have a tough fight in hand in Kazhakuttam constituency.
In Pathanapuram, LDF’s KB Ganesh Kumar is fighting a revitalized UDF as voter sentiment shifts.
BJP’s Shobha Surendran is also expected to bring energy to her campaign in Palakkad.
Senior Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala as UDF campaign committee chairman is trying to defend his home in Haripad.
Published – 27 March 2026 10:17 IST
