With West Bengal going to polls in two-phase assembly elections on April 23 and April 29, the voters of the state will have to choose between continuity of the prevailing status quo or a change in the political set-up.
The Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, is seeking to return to power for a fourth consecutive term. Despite 15 years of anti-location, the ruling party looks confident in its organization, whose influence has permeated all aspects of public life. Another advantage is also the support of the extensive network of beneficiaries that it has created over the years with its cash incentive programs.
Looking beyond SIR
The polls were preceded by a demanding four-month Special Intensive Review (SIR) of electoral rolls. Over the past few months, Ms. Banerjee has put all her political might into opposing the SIR and highlighting the difficulties brought about by the revision of electoral rolls. The number of voters in West Bengal as per the final list is 7.04 million, which is 8% less than the 7.66 million voters before SIR.
The election comes at a time when the fate of some 60 million voters hangs in the balance with their voting rights subject to a court decision. With the election almost a month away, it seems unclear whether these voters will be able to vote. Even with the additional voter list out, it seems difficult for court officials to resolve all 60,000 cases.
After the election dates were announced, the Trinamool softened on its fight against SIR and the fate of voters under the court. It is only the Left parties and the Congress that insist that no eligible voter should be left behind.
In the run-up to the parliamentary polls, Trinamool deliberately avoided the issues of jobs, migration and the flight of industries. Similar to the 2021 parliamentary polls, Trinamool is banking on Bengali sub-nationalism. Trinamool’s campaign is to portray the BJP as a party of outsiders, where any mistake in assigning a prefix or suffix to cultural or religious icons of the state by BJP leaders of foreign origin is not only highlighted but also ridiculed. The Trinamool has targeted the growing political influence of the BJP, dismissing it as an attack on Bengali identity and culture.
Narrative of infiltration
It is not enough for the BJP to challenge the Trinamool over lack of jobs and industries, migration and corruption emerging through fraud. The issue of illegal infiltration and claims of changing demographics in parts of the state have given the BJP a handle to polarize voters on religious lines. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not hesitated to talk about demographic changes in his public rallies, saying during a rally at the Brigade Parade grounds in Kolkata on 14 March that the purpose of the assembly elections was not just to change the government but to save the “soul of West Bengal”.
The BJP, which emerged as the main opposition party after 2016, also faces the disadvantage of not being able to challenge the Trinamool in constituencies where Muslim voters constitute more than 50% of the population. Out of the 294 Assembly seats, there are about 80 seats where the BJP faces this disadvantage and these are considered safe bets for the Trinamool.
CPI(M) candidate Soumen Mahato campaigns for the Santipur Assembly constituency ahead of the state assembly elections in Nadia, West Bengal on Friday, March 20, 2026. | Photo credit: PTI
Trinamool was cautious in its candidate selection and released a list of 291 candidates from 294 seats. The BJP and the CPI(M)-led Left Front have named most of their candidates and see “winning” as the most important factor. Bhabanipur, an urban constituency in the heart of Kolkata, has seen the most interesting electoral contest between Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari. The BJP tried to get the mother of the doctor who was raped and killed at RG Kar Hospital in August 2024, though her candidature was not announced.
The last few elections in West Bengal have largely been a bipolar contest, with the ruling Trinamool Congress’s vote share rising to 48% and the BJP registering about 38% in the 2021 assembly polls.
Congress is going solo
Amidst this, the Congress party has decided to end its ten-year electoral understanding with the Left Front and will fight the polls on its own. In certain areas of the state, particularly in the minority-dominated Murshidabad and Malda, where a section of the electorate appears to be disillusioned with the Trinamool, the Left and the Congress stood a better chance of winning if the two political forces came together. With careful selection of candidates, the Left Front and the Congress, whose former state president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury would like to contest, may win some seats in central Bengal.
New political entrants such as the Secular Front of India, which made its political debut in 2021, and Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan party – largely focused on building a Babri Masjid-style mosque – hold sway in only a few seats in the assembly. He is trying to bank on the discontent among Trinamool leaders who have been denied tickets. Trinamool did not give tickets to 74 MLAs and shifted another 15 to different constituencies.
Two phases
For the 2026 polls, the Election Commission of India also bucked the trend of holding elections in half a dozen or more phases and decided to hold the elections in only two phases, despite the threat of political violence and voter intimidation. The transfers of nearly 50 senior government officials including the Chief Secretary, Home Secretary and DGP have put the administration on edge. Transfers have also become a political issue.
In short, the electoral contest for the 2026 parliamentary polls in West Bengal seems set on the premise of whether voters want continuity or are in the mood for change. There are developmental and regional imbalances, such as the difference between North Bengal and South Bengal, and certain communities feel more deprived than others, but the question remains whether these all add up to achieve the critical mass needed for political change. A clearer picture will emerge in the next 40 days of the election campaign before the final die is cast.
Published – 20 March 2026 22:15 IST
