Exit polls are projections, not predictions. The 2021 West Bengal elections proved this more decisively than almost any state election in recent Indian history.
All major polling agencies have underestimated Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress by a significant margin. Majority overrated BJP. The difference between projection and reality was huge in several cases.
What Exit Polls Said
Nine agencies have released exit poll projections for 292 of the 294 West Bengal Assembly seats. That year, the remaining 2 locations were held on September 30.
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Most gave the TMC a clear lead, but none came close to the actual result. Times Now-C Voter predicted 158 seats for TMC and 115 for BJP.
The ABP-C voter gave TMC 152-164 seats and BJP 109-121. ETG-Research projected TMC at 164-174 and BJP at 105-115. POLLSTRAT gave TMC 142-152 seats against BJP’s 125-135.
West Bengal Exit Polls 2021
Two agencies stood out for being particularly out of line. India Today-Axis My India predicted a near draw, giving TMC 130-156 and BJP 134-160.
India News-Jan Ki Baat has gone furthest in favor of the BJP, projecting 162-185 seats, enough for a majority. News24-Today’s Chanakya was most bullish on TMC, projecting 180 seats for TMC against BJP’s 108.
What actually happened
The TMC won 213 of the 292 seats, an overwhelming majority. The BJP won only 77. An independent candidate won one seat. The Rashtriya Secular Majlis Party won one seat. The Left-INC-ISF alliance, Jot, was completely destroyed.
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Not a single exit poll came close to the TMC’s actual tally. Each agency undershot the TMC by several seats. The most dramatic miss was India News-Jan Ki Baat, which projected the BJP to win as many as 185 seats. BJP won 77.
Why polls fail
Election polls rely on voters to accurately report how they voted immediately after casting their ballot. In West Bengal, this assumption carries a particular risk. Voters in politically sensitive areas may not reveal their true vote.
Fear of consequences plays a big role in skewing data. The 2021 results indicate that TMC ground support was significantly underestimated in all models.
Bengal Election Pre-Election Polls 2026
The results of the exit polls for the current round of elections will be published today after 18:30. The Election Commission of India banned the polls under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. The ban came into effect from 7 am on 9 April. It remains in effect until 18:30 on 29 April 2026.
The 2nd phase of West Bengal Election 2026 is going on. By 9:00 a.m., the percentage of voters at 6:39 p.m. Purba Bardhaman district reported the highest turnout with 20.86%, followed by Hooghly with 20.16%.
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Meanwhile, TV channels, radio networks and cable operators were banned from broadcasting any exit poll data during this period. Polls and any content that could influence voter behavior are also prohibited.
Violation of Section 126A is punishable by imprisonment for up to two years, a fine or both. Results from several polling agencies are expected to be published simultaneously after the ban is lifted this evening.
West Bengal Result 2021 is a timely reminder. Exit polls are tools, not verdicts. As Mamata Banerjee proved last time, the only poll that really matters is the one that actually takes place.
