(Bloomberg) -libanon hoped that this summer he would see the return of tens of thousands of expats and tourists to the Crisis Mediterranean nation, spend money in resorts and restaurants, and visit festivals such as famous festivals in the ancient Roman city.
But in the middle of the season, the country is again struggling on the brink of conflict – one that could see a return to violence and instability after months of recovery. The new President Joseph Aoun is under the pressure of the US and Persian Gulf to completely disarm Hezbollah, and the Iranian militant group has explained that he will not return without fighting.
Hezbollah, formerly Tehran’s strongest proxy militia, suffered severe losses last year in a sharp battle with Israel and US President Donald Trump administration introduced Lebanese leaders the idea of completing the group, according to Tom Barrack, a US envoy to the country.
The US told Aun that he was willing to serve as an intermediary if he moves forward with the dissolution of Hezbollah as an armed group, Barrack said. This includes a continuation of help to promote Israel-Hezbollah the ceasefire part that mediated in November.
At the same time, the Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, said Aun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam-Jak in the first years in the Office-that funds for reconstruction and investment must help recover from this conflict and the previous financial crisis is conditioned by the schedule plan to fully postpone direct knowledge Knowledge of direct knowledge of direct knowledge of direct knowledge of direct knowledge of direct knowledge that they are direct knowledge of direct knowledge.
Persian Gulf countries have alleviated the restrictions of traveling after years of prohibitions-to restructure its banking sector as well as intervention against corruption-S aims to control the extensive informal economy based on cash, people said.
The end of Hezbollah as an armed non -state actor who gives Lebanese government a monopoly to use strength, but is crucial, Barrack said.
“The country of Persian Gulf said,” If you do these things, we will come south of Lebanon and finance the industrial zone, renovation and jobs, “he said with reference to Lebanon’s worst impact on last year’s war.” Don’t talk, but actually do it. ”
Governments of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE did not answer the commentary requests immediately.
It seems that AUN and Salam eagerly meet the requirements, and the Prime Minister said that on Tuesday the government had told the army to submit a plan by the end of this month to dismantle all non -state armed groups by the end of 2025.
But Hezbollah, the accessories of Lebanese politics and civil life for decades, remains defiant.
On Wednesday, it issued a statement that the government’s decision would consider “non -existent” decisions to be “non -existent” and accused Salam of committing “serious sin” by watching the “strategy of surrender” in the face of “ongoing Israeli aggression and occupation”.
Naim Qass, the new leader of the Group after the Israeli assassination of the long-term chief of Hassan Pasrallah last year, said that Hezbollah “does not deal with disarmament just because the US or a certain Arab country is looking for and applying all the pressure that can gather”.
He threatened to restore missile attacks against Israel – which Hezbollah began shortly after Hamas attacks in October 2023, which caused war in Gaza – if they continue to “expand his aggression” against Lebanon.
Israel, which still occupies five positions inside Lebanon, struck a vehicle in the eastern Lebanon near the Syrian border on Thursday and, according to Lebanese official press agency, killed five people after the bombing of 10 southern places.
Hezbollah, which has a political wing, which is represented both in parliament and in Salam’s government, tried to use Israeli actions to gather its Shiite Muslim base. Qassem warned them that giving up with the group’s weapons would have them exposed to the threats of Israeli and Sunni Muslim extremists in neighboring Syria.
“Despite the huge military losses of Hezbollah, it can still be a spoiler in Lebanon,” said Lina Khatib, a collaborator in the Chatham House in the Middle East and North Africa. “He doesn’t need many resources to intimidate and endanger his opponents.”
Barrack told reporters that the concerns of the Lebanese government of causing a conflict by trying to force Hezbollah to disarm, were understandable, suggesting that perhaps one of the solutions will integrate the elements of Hezbollah into the Lebanon Army. But he explained that this was a problem for Beirut and said that if the Lebanese government does not match Hezbollah, “America will not come and put Marines on the ground to do it for you.”
Since 1997, the US has identified Hezbollah’s terrorist organization.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that Hezbollah now “Iranians” manages much more tightly “and the main decision, such as disarmament,” cannot be autonomously accepted from Iran “, according to Michael Young, commentator and higher editor in Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. The problem should be on the table in any other interviews between Iran and the US on Tehranian nuclear abilities.
A similar distance over Hezbollah’s weapons culminated in the assassination of 2005 by former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic al-Hariri, who, after the end of the Civil War in 1990, led the country and western support.
According to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the Gulf of Persian, Lebanon gave at least $ 9 billion between 1963 and 2022. However, this figure excludes loans, investments and humanitarian and development aid over the years.
For example, the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development based in Kuwait in its report 2024 said that the Gulf countries subscribed to Lebanon between 1974 and 2024 loans worth about $ 1.8 billion.
“The kingdom does not want to invest in a black hole,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi author and commentator near the Royal Court, which refers to the current situation in Lebanon.
-S assists by Dana Khraich and Fiona MacDonald.
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(Tagstotranslate) Lebanon
