The US strikes Iran: The US strike on three key nuclear devices in Iran on Saturday evening put the reflector back to the Hormuz Strait – a strategically important transport route that carries about one fifth of world oil.
Iran has long threatened to suffocate the Hormuz Strait. In a new threat after the army struck his long -term enemy, the United States, Hossein Shariatmadari, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei representative, he allegedly called for immediate retaliation, including the closure of the Hormuz Strait of the American, British, German and French and French ships.
Where is the Hormuz Strait?
Hormuz Strait It is the Strait between the Persian Gulf and the Omani Gulf. It provides a single sea passage from the Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the most strategically most important points in the world. The leak serves as a primary export route for Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait.
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This way allows you to go through about 20 % of the world’s oil consumption – around 20 million barrels.
The escape has been in the center of regional tension for decades and has recently been attacks nearby and targeted alternative routes for ROP by circumventing Hormuz, agency agency agency said.
Recently, President Trump accused Iran of attacking two oil tankers at the Gulf entrance despite Tehran’s denial, and raised concerns about confrontation on the oil transport route. July 19, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said they were captured in the Persian Gulf of the British oil tanker after Britain confiscated the Iranian vessel 4th July.
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At present, according to media reports, approximately 50 large oil tankers are trying to navigate from the Hormuz Strait. Fresh threat of Iran after the US strikes caused us to worry about the disturbing conflict in the Persian Gulf for global oil trade.
Impact on India?
What if Iran closes the strait? How will it affect India? Strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. Any blockade would increase the price of oil and cause inflation.
More than two -thirds of Indian oil imports and almost half of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) import transit through Hormuz. Of the 5.5 million barrels of India’s oil, it consumes 1.5 million through the waterway.
“If Iran closes Hormuz, India will certainly suffer. About 20 percent of world oil and 25 percent of the world of natural gas flow,” said Robinder Sachdev, an expert on foreign affairs.
India will suffer because oil prices will rise, inflation will increase, and there is an estimate that for every ten dollars an increase in oil price, Indian GDP will suffer by 0.5 %, he said.
Indian readiness?
At the beginning of this week, the Minister of Union Hardeep Puri said that India was planning a source of oil from the Gulf and to reduce its own refined product exports as a potential blocking of weaving conditions.
“We have enough diversified oil reserves, and if there is a disturbance, we can get it from alternative suppliers,” said Puri, Minister of Oil and Nature Departments, NDTV
“I don’t think it’s something we’re worried about,” he added. Sufficient raw is available on the global market, so it does not apply to offers, but prices, the minister said.
Indian oil exports?
India is a pure exporter of oil goods, with refiners such as Reliance Industries Ltd. And Nayara Energy Shipping to countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, the USA and Australia. The crisis could reduce these shipments if necessary to maintain sufficient stocks at home.
This year, Indian product exports on this year average 1.3 million barrels a day and Reliance and Nayara dominated this industry with 82 % of consignments, Bloomberg informed.
Was the strait ever closed?
The strait has never been closed, despite the concerns that its closure in the past would disrupt global oil supply.
Experts said that even if there could be a temporary disruption of maritime traffic, Iran could refrain from Hormuz, because it will affect his friends more than his enemies.
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“There are three important reasons why Iran may not really do it, even if he signals it that he could do it rhetorically. At first it hurts an Iranian friend, China, the second largest economy in the world and the largest business partner., Who teaches at the Faculty of International Studies at the University of South Asian, recently wrote in the Mint.
So China, will not be happy to see any disturbance in your shipment of naval oil and can actually use its economic leverage with Iran to prevent Iran from closing a narrow lane, she said
“Secondly, Iran’s relationship with Oman (who owns the southern half of the university) and the Council for Cooperation in the Gulf of Persian (GCC) will tear. With Oman, Oman has led a careful relationship to greater addiction to Iran in a wide range of questions,” Singh added.
The two largest Iranian export clients?
During the War of Iran and Iraq at the age of 80, both countries were engaged in the so -called “tanker war”. Tehran focused on Kuwait and Saudi tankers because Iraq retaliated missile strikes.
The US has launched an Earnest Will operation to protect the Kuwait oil tankers from Iranian attacks during the Iranian-Iraq war. It was a key part of the larger “tanker war” and included the largest maritime convoy operation since World War II. This oil war led to an increase in prices around the world, but the strait remained open.
“For the third time, it may not work on the domestic market for the regime’s interest, because any economic strikes or the closure of its oil export terminal, sees price increases and supports popular dissatisfaction, which could affect both the stability of the regime and reformist tendencies for Iranian President Madoud Pezeshkian,” Singh wrote.
Steven Schork, director and editor of Schork Group, told Bloomberg that he would not think that Iran would close the Hormuz Strait because it would hurt India and China, two of their largest oil export clients.
If Iran closes Hormuz, India certainly suffers. About 20 percent of world oil and 25 percent of the world’s natural gas.
In 2011–2012 Iran again threatened to close the strait in response to European and American sanctions against its oil export and banking system. The then Iranian vice -president Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned against complete shutdown if oil sanctions were forced. But the fear was not closed.
Similarly, in 2019, when the US withdrew from Iranian nuclear agreements and tension increased, concerns about closure closed again around the world. But despite severe escalation, the strait remained functional.
(Tagstotranslate) Strait of Hormuz
