A potential US military operation against Iran would likely be a “massive, weeks-long campaign” more akin to a full-scale war than a limited strike, Axios said, citing sources.
According to the news outlet, any operation would be wider in scope — and more existential for Tehran’s leadership — than last year’s 12-day conflict triggered by Israeli strikes on Iranian targets.
Citing sources, the portal also said that the future campaign could involve joint US-Israeli coordination and have far-reaching implications for regional stability and the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.
Trump: “One way or another”
The White House has combined diplomatic assistance with a significant military build-up in the region.
“We cannot have a nuclear-armed Iran,” US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told reporters in Paris. “One way or another, we will end and deter Iran’s march toward a nuclear weapon.”
Vice President JD Vance emphasized that force remains an option if talks break down.
“We have a very strong military — the president has shown a willingness to use it,” Vance said in an interview with Fox News, adding that Trump has set “red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to really recognize and enforce.”
Naval Rise and Regional Tensions
The US deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East with the USS Gerald R. Ford en route.
Meanwhile, Iran and Russia are due to conduct joint naval exercises in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean on Thursday (19 February).
“A joint naval exercise between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia will take place tomorrow,” Rear Admiral Hassan Maghsoudloo said, according to Iranian media. “The aim is to strengthen maritime security and deepen the relationship between the navies of the two countries.”
Earlier this week, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards began exercises in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz – a key artery for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Iranian officials have regularly threatened to block the strait during times of heightened tension, though it has never been closed.
Diplomatic efforts in Geneva
Even as military pressure mounts, US and Iranian officials met in Geneva this week for talks brokered by Oman aimed at averting direct conflict.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck a cautiously optimistic tone.
“We were able to reach a general agreement on a set of guiding principles on which we will proceed from now on and move forward to develop a potential agreement,” Araghchi told state television after meeting with US special envoy Steve Witkoff.
The American delegation is led by Witkoff, with the participation of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Trump said earlier this week that Iran “wants to do a deal” and hinted that he would be indirectly involved.
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The Ballistic Missile Problem
Israel has pushed for negotiations to limit the range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, which Tehran has so far rejected as a red line.
Previous negotiations collapsed after unprecedented Israeli strikes on Iran in June 2025, sparking a 12-day war that briefly drew in the United States.
High stakes for the region
Given the ongoing talks and existing military assets, the next few weeks could prove to be decisive. A diplomatic collapse could trigger a conflict with far-reaching regional consequences, while a breakthrough could ease tensions.
At the heart of the standoff remains the question of whether Iran’s nuclear ambitions can be curbed through negotiations — or whether Washington will try to enforce its red lines by force.
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