US Midterms: Can Democrats Take Back the Senate? Polls show you up 5 spots in the GOP battleground | Today’s news
Democrats appear to be gaining ground in the final stretch before the Nov. 3 midterm elections in the U.S., with fresh polls showing the party leading five Republican-held Senate states and narrowly trailing in another.
The results suggest Democrats could be within striking distance of regaining control of the Senate.
The latest New York Times/Siena University polls show Democratic candidates leading in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Alaska, while Iowa remains a tight contest.
Democrats also lead in Michigan, where the party currently holds a seat in the Senate.
The findings come as Democrats attempt to regain control of Congress amid growing voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, particularly the economy and the rising cost of living.
Democrats lead in key Senate Republican battlegrounds
Polls indicate particularly strong Democratic performances in Texas and Kansas, two traditionally Republican states where the party has not won a Senate election since 1988 and 1932, respectively.
In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43%. In Kansas, Democrat Chris Hamilton leads Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, securing 49% support to Marshall’s 44%.
Democrat Graham Platner leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine 51% to 45%, while in Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has a five-point lead over Republican Jon Husted, 49% to 44%.
Democrat Mary Peltola has a narrower lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, polling at 48% compared to Sullivan’s 46%.
Iowa remains the closest contender among the states surveyed. Democrat Josh Turek is at 48% in the polls, just one percentage point ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson at 47%.
In Michigan, polls show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%.
The New York Times/Siena polls surveyed 610 voters in Alaska, 705 in Iowa, 736 in Kansas, 714 in Maine, 1,011 in Michigan, 717 in Ohio and 1,215 in Texas.
Can Democrats regain control of the Senate?
The latest polls could boost Democrats’ hopes of regaining control of the upper house, although the party faces a challenging electoral map.
Democrats must retain all the Senate seats they currently hold and flip at least four Republican-held seats to secure a majority.
The task was seen as difficult because several Republican constituencies needed to win are in traditionally conservative states.
But the latest New York Times/Siena findings suggest that Democrats have made significant gains in several of these battlegrounds. If the polling trends translate into actual votes, the party could emerge with control of the Senate.
Trump’s approval ratings and economy weigh on Republicans
Voter dissatisfaction with Trump and concerns about his handling of the economy appear to be a significant challenge for Republican candidates.
According to The New York Times, only 38% of likely voters in the seven states surveyed approved of Trump’s job performance. This number is particularly notable given that Trump won five of these states by double digits in the 2024 presidential election.
The economy, especially the rising cost of living, has become a central issue shaping voters’ preferences over the medium term.
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New York Times/Siena polls found Democrats leading Republicans by nine percentage points on the cost-of-living issue in seven battleground states.
Democrats lead Republicans on the issue in every state surveyed.
But the findings also point to a potential vulnerability for Democrats. A portion of voters remain undecided, while voters who made up their minds within the past month favored Republicans by a margin of nine percentage points.
What do broader congressional polls suggest?
The Senate races are part of a broader battle for control of Congress, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election on Nov. 3.
According to NBC News, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate. A majority requires 51 seats, including two independents who are members of the Democratic Party.
In the House of Representatives, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to secure a majority of 218.
An NBC News poll average puts Trump’s approval rating at 38%, while 60% of Americans disapprove of his performance.
When it comes to control of Congress, 52% of Americans prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats, compared to 44% who prefer Republican control.
The NBC News Decision Desk ratings classify five Senate races as draws, while 11 House contests are also considered draws.
The most competitive home races are concentrated in Texas, California, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, although close contests are spread across several other states.
The two sets of polls point to a difficult election environment for Republicans as voters prepare to decide the balance of power in Congress.
