US Midterm Election Results Prediction: What Betting Markets Reveal – Democrats Have ‘100% Chance To Win’ | Today’s news
Democrats are ahead of Republicans in the battle for the majority in the US Senate and House of Representatives – the upper and lower houses of the US Congress.
A trend of early US midterm election results showed Democratic candidates winning Senate races in Georgia, Virginia and New Hampshire as polling stations in several states closed early on Wednesday (IST).
Democrats flipped a Senate seat in North Carolina, while a Republican candidate secured victory in Florida. A razor-thin race is expected in Iowa.
Read also | US 2026 Midterm Result LIVE: Democrats Win North Carolina Senate Seat
How many seats do Democrats need to win a majority in the Senate?
Quick answers to key questions
•5 QUESTIONS
As of 7:50 IST, Kalshi traders have given the Democrats a 100% chance to gain control of both chambers. The article notes that the races remained very close.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the Senate and three seats to control the House. A majority of the House requires 218 seats.
Pre-election polls cited in the article favor Democrats to capture the House. The Senate race appears to be tighter, with both parties locked in state-by-state races.
Kalshi marketers identified Texas, Michigan, Maine, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas as races likely to influence Senate control. The Cook Political Report classified six Senate races as toss-ups.
Bettors at Polymarket gave the Democrats a 75% chance of winning the Senate and a 95% chance of winning the House. Kalshi merchants gave the Democrats a 100% chance to gain control of both chambers.
In the 100-member Senate, the majority is 51 seats, while in the House of Representatives, half that number is 218.
Margins are tight in both chambers of the US Congress (House and Senate); one or two seats could tip the balance, the Associated Press reported.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the Senate to win a majority as they hope to regain a majority in Congress and break the unified power of Republicans in Washington. Democrats need three in the House.
Democrats, who once viewed the political map as a near-impossible lift, now hope a Senate majority is within reach, even if their path goes through several more conservative states.
What do prediction markets say?
With the final votes now being cast and 35 Senate seats on the ballot on November 3, 2026, Kalshi traders have given the Democrats a 100% chance to gain control of the US Senate as of 7:50 AM (IST).
Kalshi bettors believed the races most likely to decide control were Texas, Michigan, Maine, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas.
In the House, Kalshi predicted, “Kalshi traders give the Democrats a 100% chance to gain control of the House. Control will come down to 360 competitive precincts.”
The prediction platform announced that more than $1.6 billion worth of bets were placed with it on the Midterms this year.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, another online prediction platform, also offered little hope for Republicans. Earlier on Tuesday, his bookies said Democrats had a 75 percent chance of taking the Senate, according to the Independent, while Republicans had a 26 percent chance of keeping it.
In a separate market, Polymarket bettors believed the Democratic Party had a 95 percent chance of winning the House of Representatives. The Republican Party’s chance of retaining the House is just 6 percent on Election Day.
Here’s what’s predicted:
Several preliminary polls showed Democrats favored to capture the House of Representatives, while the two parties found themselves in a close state-by-state race for the Senate.
Half of voters nationwide said they see the 2026 midterm election as an opportunity to rebuke the president, and three-quarters said they were “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way the country is headed, according to exit polls conducted by SSRS on behalf of a consortium of U.S. media, including major television networks and the Associated Press.
Meanwhile, the Guardian cited a Cook report that classified six Senate races as genuine “toss-ups” ahead of the election. Democrats need to win at least three of those, in addition to the other races they are expected to win, it said.
The report went on to add that Democrats are favored in enough House seats to make it to the House without winning any of the 18 seats that the Cook Political Report classifies as “toss-ups.” If they win every seat they are expected to win, they will have a comfortable majority.
The balance of power now hinges on Democrats holding the 18 seats rated “Democrat-lean.” Republicans, who won 195 seats, would have to sweep all 18 ballots and flip five Democratic-leaning seats to win.
How is the House of Representatives, US Senator elected?
The lower house, the House of Representatives, has 435 voting seats, each representing a district of roughly similar size. Elections are held every two years for each of these seats.
All 435 seats in the House are on the ballot on November 3, 2026. The party needs 218 seats for a majority.
The upper house, the Senate, has 100 members who sit for six-year terms. One-third of the seats come up for election in each two-year cycle. Each state has two senators, regardless of its population. The House is controlled by the party that won at least 51 seats in the US Senate.
