Former MI6 chief Alex Younger has claimed that Iran currently has the upper hand in its ongoing conflict with the United States.
According to The Economist, Younger said that although he regretted the remarks, given the violence and brutality of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) several MI6 officers had faced, the US had “underestimated the task”. He added that, in his opinion, Washington lost the initiative to Tehran almost two weeks ago.
How does Iran have the upper hand?
The former MI6 chief went on to say that the Islamic Republic regime was more resilient than anyone would have expected. He said the country had already taken some “good decisions” last June when it dispersed military capabilities and delegated authority to use those weapons, giving them significant additional resilience against airstrikes launched by the US and Israel.
According to Younger, the Islamic Republic has engaged in what he called “horizontal escalation,” meaning it fires missiles at anyone within range. He added that the move now imposes a direct cost on the US.
The former British intelligence chief, who shed light on how Tehran understood the importance of the energy war, said they had kept the strait at risk and somehow globalized the conflict, which had provided them with some weapons. Younger suggests that the Islamic Republic played the “weak hand” illusion quite well.
Iran’s war of existence versus Trump’s war of choice
Another reason Tehran seems to have the upper hand is that US President Donald Trump has made some remarks that confirmed what the Islamic Republic already knew, which is that the country is in a civilizational or existential war, according to Younger. He added that Trump has made it very clear that he wants to see them “at the wall.” On the other hand, Washington embarked on a war of choice. The fact that Tehran is fighting for its existence has given it more power than the US.
US-Iran War
Younger’s remarks shed light on how the conflict has developed in the Middle East. During the three-week war, the US and Israel killed several top Iranian leaders, including the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others. But earlier this week, Trump announced a pause in the fighting, citing “very good and productive talks” with Tehran, which the Islamic Republic denied.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday floated Islamabad as a possible venue for US-Iran peace talks, emphasizing its role as a key mediator. While there has been no confirmation yet, Trump shared a screenshot of Sharif’s tweet on his Truth Social account.
How the conflict will develop remains to be seen. Will Iran and the US agree to negotiate and will there be a solution? Will Tehran agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allay concerns over global energy markets, or will the conflict escalate further?
