War between the US and Iran is becoming a possibility, and some media outlets are reporting that a strike could happen as early as this weekend. Starting in January, the US has been building a massive military presence in the Middle East, the largest of its kind since the invasion of Iraq.
Analysts believe that, unlike in the past, this time the US could strike Iran decisively, destroying the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and also forcing regime change by ousting the theocratic administration led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Recent US-Iran Tensions: A Timeline
December 28: Protests began in Tehran over rising prices and devaluation of the currency and soon spread across the country.
January 2: As the protests continued to spread, US President Donald Trump warned that Washington was closely monitoring the situation. Trump said the US was “locked and loaded and ready to go” if Iran “shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters”.
January 8: Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi called for nationwide protests and urged Iranians to “take back the streets”.
January 8: Iran suspended the internet and other lines of communication before launching a brutal crackdown on protests on January 8 and 9.
January 9: Trump warned on social media that the US “stands ready to help the protesters in Iran” as the first reports emerged that the administration was exploring military options in Iran.
January 10: Iran has called the protests a threat to national security and accused the US and Israel of being behind them.
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January 13: President Trump said on social media that “help is on the way” for protesters in Iran and threatened military action if the killing of protesters did not stop. The Iranian government responded by declaring that they were “ready for war”.
January 15: The US has imposed new sanctions on Iranian officials involved in the crackdown on protests, including the head of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Larijani.
January 15: The US has begun withdrawing some personnel from major bases in the Middle East.
January 19: The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is diverted to the Middle East and is transiting the Malacca Strait
January 21: Trump warned Iran against executing protesters, saying Tehran would face harsher consequences than those in June 2025.
January 23: US sanctions target illicit oil traders to reduce the regime’s revenue.
January 25: The US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea.
January 25: Iran said its armed forces had entered a state of full alert.
January 27: Trump has announced that a second naval force is heading to Iran and has warned that failure to reach a deal will lead to a more devastating strike.
January 27: Iran has begun a three-day live fire exercise near the Strait of Hormuz.
January 28: Trump has threatened “traumatic” consequences if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal that includes dismantling its missile program.
January 29: The European Union has designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.
January 30: The US has imposed new sanctions on seven Iranian individuals, including Iran’s interior minister, and two entities, targeting a cryptocurrency exchange linked to the IRGC for the first time.
January 30: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told regional leaders that Iran does not seek war but will definitely respond to aggression.
January 31: Trump said Iran was “seriously” engaged in talks and expressed hope for a mutually acceptable deal.
January 31: Iran’s top official Ali Larijani suggests that a “framework for negotiations” is developing despite the rhetoric.
January 31: Iran has announced a two-day live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz starting on February 1, called “Intelligent Control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
February 1: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned that the US strike would trigger a “large-scale regional war”.
February 3: An American F-35C from the USS Abraham Lincoln shot down an Iranian Shahed-139 drone that reportedly approached the carrier group.
February 4: First indirect nuclear talks between US and Iran in Muscat, Oman.
February 6: The first round of talks in Oman has ended. Both sides call it a “good start.”
February 6: The US issued an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on any country that directly or indirectly buys goods or services from Iran.
February 9: The US Maritime Administration advised all US-flagged ships to stay “as far as possible” from Iranian waters due to heightened tensions.
February 13: USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is ordered to join Lincoln in the Middle East.
February 14: The Iranian diaspora around the world joined Reza Pahlavi’s “Global Day of Action” in solidarity with Iran’s “Lion and Sun Revolution”.
February 17: The second round of US-Iranian talks took place in Geneva.
February 18: American media reported that the Pentagon has informed the White House that American forces are operationally ready to attack Iran as early as this coming weekend.