US exits Iraq, Houthi advance: Challenges for the Middle East as it prepares for a post-American security era

The United States formally drew the curtain on its military mission in Iraq on Wednesday, ending one of the major chapters of its presence in the Middle East since the 9/11 attacks.

The move comes at a pivotal time in Middle East security history. On the day Washington announced the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq, Pakistan said it would use any means necessary to defend Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, invoking the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Pakistan’s statement comes as the Houthis have stepped up their campaign in Yemen, threatening strategic territories and shipping lanes around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is under pressure to work on its strained ties with the UAE to bring in UAE-aligned forces in Yemen to counter Houthi aggression.

These developments show that the Middle East is undergoing a transition from more than two decades of American-led order to now more regional security systems based on their relationships with allies.

Why is Iraq important?

The US withdrawal from Iraq officially ended Operation Inherest Resolve, which was originally launched in 2014 to defeat ISIS-linked militants.

Even if the U.S. does not completely leave the Middle East and maintains a counterterrorism role, Iraq becomes noteworthy because it will now have to strike a balance between its government, armed groups in the country that are aligned with Iran, and the remaining threat from the Islamic State.

The situation in Saudi Arabia

For decades, Saudi Arabia has depended on the US for its security, which has included military protection, weapons and intelligence services. With the recent escalation in Yemen, Riyadh realizes that it cannot continue to depend on a single external security partner.

With the expanding presence of the Houthis threatening Saudi territory and hampering maritime traffic around Bab el-Mandeb, Riyadh entered into a security pact with Turkey and Pakistan. The first test of this alliance is now underway.

While Pakistan has pledged support to Saudi Arabia, it is important to note that it has deep economic and military ties with Iran. If they confront the Houthis directly, it could have an impact on Islamabad’s relationship with Tehran.

The case of Saudi Arabia

There is another complication for Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Houthis. It may have to include actors with whom Riyadh has been at odds recently.

While the UAE and Saudi Arabia fought together in the Yemen war, their interests diverged over Yemen’s future, partly due to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council and the issue of southern separatism.

When Saudi forces moved against the group, it led to the UAE’s complete withdrawal from Yemen.

However, the advance of the Houthis completely changed the strategic calculations.

The Giant Brigades in Yemen, a group trained in Saudi Arabia, is one of the most prominent anti-Houthi forces in Yemen. Thus, Saudi Arabia will have to coordinate closely with Abu Dhabi if it wants to moderate the Houthi aggression to some extent.

So the new reality of the Middle East looks like the region will increasingly have to build overlapping coalitions because no single power can guarantee its security everywhere.