European leaders grappled with the prospect of President Trump’s return to office by attempting to maintain U.S. cooperation on Ukraine while pushing to bolster their own defense spending, reducing reliance on an increasingly unpredictable United States. However, a tense Friday meeting in the Oval Office, during which President Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, underscored the challenges ahead. Even as European leaders strive to keep the U.S. engaged, they may need to formulate more concrete plans—and quickly.
The heated exchange ended with President Trump abruptly canceling a press conference with Zelensky and taking to social media to declare that the Ukrainian leader was not “ready for peace” despite American support. The incident, along with Trump’s threat to withdraw U.S. backing unless Ukraine accepted a peace deal, marked another signal of his detachment from traditional European allies and his apparent pivot toward Russia.
This stark shift in U.S. strategy has alarmed many who fear that a weak peace deal would embolden Russia, posing a greater threat to Europe. The changing tone has also intensified the urgency for European nations to achieve greater self-reliance, even as they face the same economic and political challenges. However, building independent defense systems and capabilities would take years, and supporting Ukraine’s domestic defense would require swift action and political unity—something the European Union often struggles to achieve.
“The question today is: How will Europe step up?” said Alexander de Hoop Scheffer, acting president of the German Marshall Fund. “They have no alternative.”
European leaders have already begun discussions on how to ensure Ukraine’s security in the event of a peace agreement, what terms they would consider acceptable, and what support they could provide in future aid packages. However, the immediate aftermath of Trump’s confrontation with Zelensky has injected a new sense of urgency into these talks.
High-level meetings are scheduled this week to address defense and security, starting with a summit in London organized by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Sunday, followed by a special European Council summit in Brussels on Thursday. Representatives from the EU’s 27 member states convened on Friday to draft proposals for the Brussels summit, including calls to accelerate EU defense efforts and define potential security guarantees for Ukraine.
These discussions took on new significance after Friday’s Oval Office confrontation, which sparked outrage and prompted European officials to reaffirm their support for Ukraine. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier described the incident as “breathtaking,” stating, “I never thought we’d have to defend Ukraine from the United States.” The fallout has also galvanized calls for swift action, with hopes that even reluctant EU members might now agree to enhance defense spending and support for Ukraine.
“Europe needs to be stronger than ever,” French President Emmanuel Macron declared on social media. “The moment for a leap forward is now.”
EU diplomat Kaja Kallas was even more direct, writing, “We will step up our support for Ukraine. Today it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It is up to us, Europeans, to take on this challenge.” Despite these bold statements, transitioning to greater defense autonomy will not be easy.
Financing remains a significant hurdle. While the U.S. has spent approximately $114 billion on military, financial, and humanitarian aid for Ukraine over the past three years, according to an oft-cited tracker, Europe has committed $132 billion. Moreover, the U.S. provides critical weapons and military equipment that would be difficult for Europe to replace quickly.
“We still need the U.S.,” said Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of the Brussels-based Bruegel research group. While EU nations have increased defense spending in recent years—up 30% since 2021—many NATO members still fall short of the alliance’s target of allocating 2% of GDP to defense. And with economic challenges and budgetary constraints in countries like Germany, France, and Belgium, finding the political will to rapidly boost defense spending remains a challenge.
“Massive investments in our common European defense capabilities are needed,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Saturday, urging action ahead of this week’s meetings.
The debate over funding for Ukraine also highlights divisions within Europe. While discussions on a new aid package worth tens of billions of euros are ongoing, Hungary is expected to oppose any block-level funding, potentially forcing the EU to rely on individual contributions. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán further underscored his alignment with Trump, praising the U.S. leader for “bravely standing for peace,” even as many European leaders criticized his approach.
European officials are also considering how to deploy peacekeeping forces in Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached. Both Britain and France have expressed willingness to send troops, and discussions on this issue are expected to continue this week. However, as Alexander de Hoop Scheffer noted, the time for slow deliberation may be running out. With the U.S. increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner, Europe must act decisively.
“The scene in the Oval Office was a wake-up call,” she said. “Europe needs to get serious—very, very serious.”
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, one of Trump’s closest allies in Europe, proposed an immediate summit among the U.S., European states, and other allies to address the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron recently traveled to Washington to meet with President Trump, though they failed to secure a U.S. commitment to peacekeeping efforts.
Starmer’s plans for the London summit highlight the growing alignment between the EU and Britain on defense, giving the British leader a more prominent role in negotiations with the U.S. As Germany works to form a new government and France tackles domestic issues, Starmer’s leadership has become increasingly significant.
Despite the shifting tone, European leaders remain acutely aware of the need for U.S. support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already expressed gratitude for American aid on social media, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized the importance of maintaining “the closest alliances with the United States.” Still, as Europe acknowledges the U.S.’s growing unreliability, the days of simply hoping for continuity in the transatlantic relationship may be over.
“We’ve had several shocking moments like this—each time, there’s a lot of hand-wringing,” said Zettelmeyer. “The real question is: Will this time be different?”
