Tamil Nadu broke away from the traditional Dravidian duopoly in the 2026 assembly elections and voted for a new leader to head the state. Yet, despite a sweeping mandate, he fell short of the one thing needed to form a government: a majority.
While the 2026 Tamil Nadu election results showed Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as the single largest party, the power to elect the next state government seemed to still rest with the old Dravidian ecosystem and its allies.
Read also | Will TVK secure majority in Tamil Nadu if CPI, CPI(M) and Congress support it?
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Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single largest party, winning 108 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. This historic debut significantly affected the traditional Dravidian parties, with the TVK capturing more than half of the seats previously held by the DMK and nearly 40% of the seats previously held by the AIADMK.
Despite winning 108 seats, TVK falls short of the 118 seats needed for a majority in the 234-member assembly. Even with the support of five Congress MLAs, their total number stands at 113, leaving them five seats short of forming a government on their own.
TVK can form the government by securing support from smaller parties like CPI, CPI(M), VCK, IUML or potentially through outside support from AIADMK. However, alliances with parties like the VCK, CPI and CPI(M) are complicated as they are allies of the DMK, and the TVK has shown reluctance to tie up with the BJP, an ally of the AIADMK.
The Governor, Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar, has asked TVK chief Vijay to prove majority support in the Assembly before he is sworn in as Chief Minister. While TVK is claiming the mandate as the single largest party, the governor said the required majority support has not been established, leading to a mandate versus majority debate.
If no party or coalition can prove a majority in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, the final solution would be to impose President’s Rule or call fresh elections. This scenario occurs when a hung assembly cannot lead to a stable government formation.
1. As Vijay’s TVK, making a historic debut in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, won almost half the seats won by the DMK and AIADMK in the last state elections
2. Why is he still unable to form a majority government in the state; and
3. Both the DMK and the AIADMK and their allies – who have long dominated Tamil Nadu politics – have the ball in their court despite voters giving a larger share to TVK.
Read also | TVK chief Vijay is unlikely to take oath as Tamil Nadu CM on Thursday
TVK ate into seat share of DMK and AIADMK
TVK won 108 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly.
Of these 108 seats, 65 were earlier held by DMK MLAs. In the state elections in 2021, the DMK won 133 seats. This means that TVK won more than half of the seats that DMK won in the 2021 polls.
The 65 seats that were transferred from DMK to TVK were:
S No.Assembly Seat1GummidipoondiS No.Assembly Seat3Poonamallee4Avadi5Maduravoyal6Ambattur7Madavaram8Thiruvottiyur9Dr.radhakrishnan nagar10Perambur11Kolathur12Villivakkam13Thirunaam14Eka-ho lights17Anna nagar18Virugampakkam19Saidapet20Thiyagarayanagar21Mylapore22Shozhinganallur23Alandur24Pallavaram25Tambaram26Chengalpattu27Uthiramerur28Kancheepuram29Katpadi30Ranipet31Vellodi3Tamipatm2G. (North)35Rasipuram36Senthamangalam37Namakkal38Tiruchengodu39Erode (West)40Tiruppur (South)41Krishnarayapuram42Manapparai43Srirangam44Tiruchirappalli45Thiruverumbur46Musiri47Thuraiyur48Perambalur49Cuddalore50Kumbakonam51Thanjavur52Tiruppattur54Mamadan553Mamamadan5Madurai north57Madurai south58Madurai center59Periyakulam60Cumbum61Rajapalayam62Virudhunagar63Thoothukkudi64Ottapidaram65Radhapuram
Similarly, the TVK won 26 of the 66 seats held by the AIADMK (almost 40 percent) in the 2021 elections. The 26 places were:
S No. Seat Assembly1Arakkonam2Kilvaithinankuppam3Uthangarai4Krishnagiri5Polur6Kallakurichi7Salem (South)8Veerapandi9Kumarapalayam10Gobichettipalayam11Bhavanisagar12Mettuppalayam14Tirup (North)15Palladam16Sulur17Kavundampalayam18Coimbatore19Singanallur20Kinathukadavu21Nilakkottai22Sivaganga23Madurai West24Thiruparankundram25Usilampatti26Srivilliputhur
2. Why is this not enough to form the Tamil Nadu government? Coalition drama inside
Despite TVK making a big dent in DMK and AIADMK’s seat share, Vijay’s party is still 10 seats shy of reaching the majority mark and comfortably forming the government in the state.
Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar had earlier asked TVK chief Vijay to show the majority and submit the list of supporting MLAs during the second round of discussions held in Chennai on Thursday.
In the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, where 118 is the majority mark, TVK has 108 MLAs. Adding the five seats won by the Congress, the number in favor of Vijay touches 113 – five short of the majority mark.
Where will these five MLAs come from? The TVK could form the government if it gets support from any of the political parties that have won seats in the assembly – be it the Left, AIADMK, DMK, VCK or IUML.
Read also | Will Vijay become the next Tamil Nadu CM? TVK chief appears as ‘Jana Nayagan’
How can DMK, AIADMK and their allies dominate
Will AIADMK (47 seats) or DMK (59 seats) help Vijay form the state government? If either of the two extend their support to TVK, Vijay would easily form the government in Tamil Nadu.
However, this is not the case.
DMK chief and outgoing Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has ruled out an alliance with TVK or AIADMK. Stalin told The Times of India on Wednesday that the DMK would wait for TVK leader C. Joseph Vijay to form the government and “watch without interference for six months”.
What about AIADMK? On the AIADMK front, party MLAs have been put up at a resort in neighboring Puducherry as reports suggest a split within the party over TVK.
Sources told ANI that AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami did not agree to the motion to support TVK. But they said the leaders, including CV Shanmugam and OS Manian, were in favor of extending support to TVK in exchange for key positions in the proposed government.
Sources also claimed that discussions are underway on a possible power-sharing arrangement, under which CV Shanmugam could be offered the post of deputy minister along with key ministerial portfolios.
However, AIADMK president S Semmalai said the party has not received any written or verbal invitation from TVK seeking support to form the government in the state, PTI reported.
If not AIADMK, whose support could make Vijay CM? If none of the DMK and AIADMK MLAs support Vijay, the onus falls on the Left and other regional parties.
If any of the three – from the Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – extends support to the TVK, the alliance could form the state government.
But VCK, CPI and CPI(M) in particular are allies of DMK while BJP has a pre-election alliance with AIADMK. The question is, would these parties or a few MLAs break away from AIADMK or DMK to help TVK?
What these parties said:
TVK approached the CPI and other left parties to seek support in the Tamil Nadu government formation.
VCK and CPI have so far confirmed their support but have urged Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar to invite TVK President Vijay to form the government as he is the single largest party.
“We cannot take a magical decision. Tomorrow, a high-level committee of VCK will meet and take a final decision. Left parties will also meet in their respective offices,” VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan was quoted as saying by PTI on Thursday, May 7.
“Since we have been working with the Left parties for the past ten years, we have decided to arrive at a decision together. Hence, we are waiting for their decision,” Thirumavalavan told ANI.
The Tamil Nadu unit of the CPI urged the governor to act in accordance with the constitution, noting that it was “inappropriate” for him to ask Vijay to prove his majority before taking the oath.
Meanwhile, CPI (M) leader P Shanmugam said on Thursday that his party has received a letter from Tamilaga Vetra Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay, which will be discussed in the party’s state committee meeting.
“The TVK boss has sent a letter to our party. Tomorrow morning there will be a meeting of our State Committee, in which we will make our decision,” said Shanmugam.
The mandate vs
The numbers game in Tamil Nadu has created a conundrum in state politics, sparking the mandate-versus-majority debate. Many argue that with a majority of seats in the assembly (108), Vijay has a “mandate” and a “right on the floor of the House” despite not having the magic number of 118.
However, Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar was not happy with Vijay’s claim to form the government and explained on Thursday that the TVK does not have the necessary majority support in the state assembly to form the government.
The CPI said the electorate had not delivered a clear mandate, so no single party could form a government independently.
“However, voters gave Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam 108 seats, making it the single largest party in the assembly. Based on this, TVK leader Vijay met the governor and staked his claim to form the government. It is not appropriate for the governor to insist that TVK prove its majority before the swearing-in ceremony,” the CPI said in a statement.
Rajya Sabha MP Kapil Sibal also said that Vijay must be allowed to take oath as the leader of the single largest party. He urged Sarkaria’s commission to write on X, “Swear in him as CM. Let him prove his majority on the floor of the House. No alliance after majority vote.”
Meanwhile, actor Prakash Raj wrote on X, “Vijay has a mandate. He should be allowed to exercise his right on the floor of the house.”
All eyes are now on the next step of the Left and regional parties, including the AIADMK MLAs staying at the Puducherry resort. Will they help Vijay become CM?
