The financial impact of Trump’s trade war is becoming clearer as a new analysis of US Census data shows that states across the country, where key midterm elections will be held this year, paid more than $134 billion in tariffs between March 2025 and last November.
Overall, US states paid a combined $199 billion in tariffs during that period, data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide showed. That means the politically significant states alone accounted for a large share of the total bill, CNBC reported.
US President Donald Trump called affordability a “Democratic fraud”. In recent testimony before Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also argued that tariffs “do not cause inflation.”
Trump began imposing sweeping trade tariffs in March of last year as part of an aggressive tariff campaign that targeted a wide range of America’s trading partners. These tariffs will be imposed on goods from major economies such as China, the European Union, Japan and India.
How is this likely to affect polls?
Trump’s tariffs and rising cost of living are expected to be key factors in the upcoming midterm elections. Recent CNBC polling data shows that many Americans are feeling the pressure of higher prices and are unhappy with the state of the economy. A January poll by The New York Times and Siena University found that 54% of voters oppose Trump’s tariffs.
“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for higher prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of the small business coalition We Pay the Tariffs and president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions in taxes in states that will determine elections in 2026. He just doesn’t want to,” Anthony said.
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Anthony told the news agency that his coalition is highlighting the new data to counter rhetoric about tariffs that “pay other companies” and “pay Americans” and to “educate the public about how the tariffs really work and who pays for them: America’s small businesses, workers and consumers.”
Although tariffs are imposed on foreign goods, the costs are usually borne by businesses and consumers. Importers pay extra tax at the border, but most pass it on to retailers, who then raise prices for shoppers. As a result, tariffs often lead to higher costs for everyday items such as cars, electronics, household goods, and food, directly affecting affordability for a country’s voters.
List of major US states and their tariff bills
— California: $38 billion
— Michigan: $13 billion
— Illinois: $9.6 billion
— Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
— North Carolina: $5 billion
— South Carolina: $5.2 billion
This year, all 435 districts in the US House of Representatives and 33 seats in the US Senate are up for election. Republicans have narrow majorities in both houses of Congress. Democrats therefore need to pick up four seats to gain a majority in the Senate. To maintain control of the House, the GOP cannot afford to lose more than two seats.
The midterm primary election season will begin on March 3, with voters in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas heading to the polls to choose their preferred party candidates.