Trump’s Iraq Withdrawal Comes Amid War With Iran: 5 Things That Could Change After September 30 | Today’s news
The planned withdrawal of US forces from their remaining bases in Iraq on September 30 marks a major reversal after more than two decades of US military involvement in the country.
The departure was agreed upon in 2024 under former President Joe Biden and is being carried out by the administration of President Donald Trump. While Iran and its allied groups welcomed the move as a step toward Iraqi sovereignty, Iraqi security officials and analysts expressed concern about the implications for the country’s security and regional balance.
Here are five things that could change after the US withdrawal.
1. Iran’s influence could expand
The withdrawal removes the US military presence that Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli described to Reuters as a long-term counterweight to Tehran’s influence.
Iran welcomed the withdrawal, and Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran’s parliament’s national security committee, said “permanent security in Iraq will prevail” once US forces leave Iraq and the wider region.
Iran has long sought the withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East and supports a number of allied armed groups in the region. A US withdrawal from Iraq could therefore give Tehran more room to strengthen its political and security influence through Iraqi partners.
2. Iran-backed militias could gain more room to operate
Iraqi militias linked to Iran are also celebrating the withdrawal.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, commander of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of armed factions backed by Iran, called the US withdrawal a “historic victory” for the groups.
He told Reuters that September 30 would mark the “failure of the occupation to impose its will” on Iraq, saying that the country’s sovereignty should be ensured by Iraqis rather than foreign forces.
Al-Bahadli warned, however, that the groups could seek to translate the US withdrawal into greater influence over security and political decision-making.
3. The Islamic State could try to exploit security loopholes
A US withdrawal could also raise concerns about the remaining Islamic State network in Iraq.
Islamic State lost its territorial “caliphate” nearly a decade ago after Iraqi forces backed by a US-led coalition fought the group from 2014 to 2017. But the group continues to maintain sleeper cells.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani told Reuters that the absence of US intelligence, logistical assistance and drones could give Islamic State an opportunity to regroup.
He said Kurdish forces had seen increased movement of Islamic State sleeper cells after reports of a planned withdrawal emerged.
Iraqi security forces also reported that a suspected Islamic State cell was preparing suicide attacks to coincide with the US withdrawal. Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, said the group was trying to prove it was still capable of carrying out deadly attacks.
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4. Iraqi-American military ties will enter a new phase
The withdrawal does not erase the long history of US-Iraqi relations, but it does mark the end of a significant phase of direct US military involvement.
The US invaded Iraq in 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein and withdrew its forces in 2011. US troops returned less than three years later to support Iraqi forces fighting Islamic State.
The relationship subsequently became entangled with tensions between the US and Iran. In 2020, the US killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in a strike near Baghdad airport, while Iranian-backed groups repeatedly attacked US positions in Iraq.
The final withdrawal means Baghdad will have greater responsibility for managing its internal security while balancing its relations with Washington and Tehran.
5. The regional security balance could shift
Iraq occupies a unique position in the Middle East, maintaining close political and military relations with the United States and Iran despite their rivalry.
This position has repeatedly made Iraq a battleground for wider regional tensions.
The withdrawal comes at a time when the Middle East is already facing many interconnected conflicts. Iran’s allies in Iraq have been accused by Washington of supporting attacks linked to the wider regional conflict, including a recent attack on a major Saudi oil pipeline. The Iraqi government has said it is trying to limit the influence of these armed groups.
A US withdrawal could therefore have consequences beyond Iraq, especially for Iran, Saudi Arabia and other regional powers.
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