During his visit to the Middle East this week, US President Donald Trump is going to travel to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. His most urgent regional concerns, however, lie elsewhere – specifically with Israel and Iran.
Israel intensified military operations in the Gaza zone after the ceasefire two months ago and aggravated the already serious humanitarian crisis due to ongoing blockages of basic goods such as food and medicine. Meanwhile, Iran – both the opponent in Saudi Arabia and the opponent of Israel – is close to developing nuclear weapons, according to report, etc.
Despite the growing regional tension, Trump’s travel schedule focuses on three rich Gulf countries, where real estate development is already being developed in the Trump brand or in the pipeline. It is expected that the US economic interests will be emphasized in these countries and involved in what is known to enjoy the most – closing business trades.
Will Gulf be a “happy place” for Trump?
“That’s his happy place,” said The Associated Press Jon B. Alterman, senior vice president of Washington for strategic and international studies.
“His hosts will be generous and hospitable. They will want to conclude agreements. They will be flattered and will not criticize it. And they will treat their family members as past and future business partners.”
However, Trump will not be able to completely perform diplomatic discussions about Gaz and Iran, because the host nations also want to reduce the regional tension stemming from both conflicts.
“Trump can easily win victory by making them a strategic commitment to the region, demonstrating consistently sending messages and generally rising over fraying,” AP wrote Analystics Elizabeth Dent and Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for the Middle East, reported.
Does Trump ignore Israel?
Trump, who decided not to include Israel on his first trip in the Middle East, strengthens the perception of Israeli officials and the public that their concerns may no longer be a priority for his administration. This sentiment increased last week after Trump announced that the US would stop its strikes on the Iranian rebels of Houthi in Yemen, after agreement to stop focusing on American ships in the Red Sea, AP reported.
Read also: Houthis rocket strikes near Israel Airport Ben Gurion; Flights continue after initial disturbances
Trump’s decision to launch interviews with Iran on his nuclear program was also upset by Israel, who fears that any resulting agreement may not reach the effective blocking of the Iranian path to the nuclear weapon or to reduce the support of militant groups in the region. Israeli officials hoped for potential American military support in the event of a strike on the Iranian nuclear infrastructure – a scenario that now seems unlikely if the negotiations are done or if the agreement is eventually reached, AP reported.
In Israel, this raised questions about Trump’s reliability regarding other major questions, such as the long -term normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia within any defense pact that the administration can achieve with the kingdom.
Read also: Trump’s administration in interviews on the acceptance of the new Air Force One as a Gift from Qatar
Saudi Arabia said it would normalize ties with Israel in exchange for significant concessions for Palestinians towards statehood, which is something that the current Israeli government would probably not agree.
Israel said he would postpone any escalation of his military campaign in Gaza after visiting President Trump, which can form space for a new ceasefire agreement. Hamas and Trump announced that Edan Alexander, the latest known American hostage in Gaza, would be released as part of a wider ceasefire effort.
However, it remains unclear what role, if at all, Israel played in providing this agreement.
No breakthrough in Iranian nuclear interviews
For Iran, it depends on the interviews that the US has a rapidly developing nuclear program. The reported two-month deadline to reach the agreement probably passed because US officials signal America can promote Iran to completely give up enrichment-some of what Tehran insisted on being a red line.
While four rounds of Omani interviews still have to bring the main breakthrough, they have advanced to the so -called “professional level”, suggesting that they are now discussing detailed aspects of potential agreements.
At the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was visited by both Saudi Arabia and Qatar before the regional trip of President Trump – which is an effort to convey messages to Washington and signal the constant interest of Tehran in negotiations. At the same time, Iranian officials intensified the warning of nuclear weapons, while Trump and Israel threatened a military action against Iranian nuclear places if diplomacy fails.
The Islamic Republic is running out of opportunities. His economy has clerned since Trump unilaterally pulled America from his initial nuclear agreement with world powers. And the Iranian self-written “axis of resistance” -Shroup of balanced nations and militant groups, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon-Byla since the beginning of the war of Israel.
Iran also deals with internal political pressures, especially from the growing number of women who resist the mandatory Hijab Act. Yet one problem that connects many Iranians is national pride in the Gulf. President Trump states the consideration of the official designation as the “Arab Gulf” has caused a widespread outrage in Iran.
“This bay has always been the Persian Gulf – and it will remain the Persian Gulf forever,” said Teheránský Friday’s prayer leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami
Isn’t Gulf still over Trump’s 2017 trip?
Trump will start his trip to the Middle East in Saudi Arabia before heading to Qatar, which recently revealed plans for the Trump real estate project.
This warm reception refers to a sharp contrast to the sleep of his first visit to the region in 2017, which many believe that it has caused the Qatar crisis.
At that time, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and SAE imposed a diplomatic and economic blockade on Qatar, blamed it for the support of Islamist groups and maintaining close ties with Iran – with which they operate a large coastal natural gas field.
The dispute grew so seriously that Kuwait’s ruling Emir at that time Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah suggested that there could be a “military action” when visiting the White House.
At the beginning of the regional boycott Trump, he criticized Qatar, saying that “historically he was a very high level donor”.
Less than a year later, however, turned his attitude and publicly appreciated the country. The diplomatic crack involving four nations was solved just before the President Biden took over.
“This is his happy place,” said Jon B. Alterman, emphasizing Trump’s affinity for business orders in the Persian Gulf.
In order to avoid the repetition of the diplomatic crisis in 2017, Trump should “re -emphasize the effort to unify the Persian Gulf,” said Dent and Henderson of the Washington Institute for the Middle East policy, as stated by AP.
(Tagstotranslate) Donald Trum
