On the day the lights went out in Cuba, Donald Trump turned on his own. Speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, the US president said he believed he would have “the honor of taking Cuba.” Trump’s move in Cuba follows a now-familiar playbook: In January, US forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro after he refused to step down, making Venezuela the first Latin American country to fall under Washington DC’s expanding sphere of influence.
“I’m going to take Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, I’m going to take it. I think I can do whatever I want with it,” Donald Trump said. “They are a very weakened nation right now.
The timing was no accident. Cuba is struggling with a nationwide blackout, its fuel supplies are critically depleted, its hospitals are delaying procedures and its streets are rarely a place for public dissent – witnessing unusual protests. Into this vacuum stepped Washington DC with a set of demands that amounted to the most significant pressure campaign on Havana in a generation.
Washington DC’s main demand: Díaz-Canel must go
At the heart of the talks between U.S. and Cuban officials is a tough ultimatum: President Miguel Díaz-Canel must be removed from power, according to four people familiar with the discussions. U.S. negotiators have made it clear to their Cuban counterparts that the president’s departure is a prerequisite — though they will leave it up to the Cubans to determine what happens next.
Díaz-Canel, 65, has been Cuba’s leader since 2018 and is also the head of the Communist Party, with two years left in his term. He has the distinction of being the first person not named Castro to rule Cuba since the 1959 revolution, though he has long been seen as more of a puppet than a real power broker.
The real authority in Cuba rests elsewhere, most notably with 94-year-old Raúl Castro, who remains a formidable force behind the scenes.
According to some Trump administration officials, ousting Díaz-Canel would unlock the structural economic reforms Havana needs, but which the president, who Washington DC views as a hardliner, is unlikely to approve. For Trump, it would represent a powerful political symbol: the ouster of a leftist leader, echoing the earlier capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by his administration in January after Maduro refused to relinquish power.
Emerging client state? Economic plan
Beyond the political theater, the architecture of what Washington envisions for Cuba is taking center stage. U.S. negotiators are pushing for Cuba to gradually open its economy to U.S. businesses and investors, a gradual transformation that officials privately describe as laying the groundwork for something akin to a client state.
In exchange, the Trump administration is seeking the release of political prisoners and the removal of senior officials still ideologically entrenched in the Fidel Castro era.
Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga has signaled Havana’s noncommittal readiness to get involved, telling NBC News on Monday that his government is ready to welcome foreign investment, including from across the Florida Straits. “Cuba is open to smooth business relations with American companies, including Cubans living in the United States and their descendants,” he said.
Pérez-Oliva Fraga went further and suggested that the opening would extend far beyond the private sector. “This goes beyond the commercial realm,” he said. “It also applies to investments, not only small, but also large, especially in infrastructure.”
Cuban Exiles: The Bridge Between Havana and Washington DC
For Cuban Americans, of whom there are millions in the US, especially in Florida, this development has a deep personal interest. In the last five years alone, more than two million Cubans have left the island. Díaz-Canel himself acknowledged this in a televised appearance last week, saying: “It is our duty as governments to accept them, listen to them, care for them and offer them space to participate in economic and social development.”
Hugo Cancio, a Cuban-American businessman based in Miami, has for years run one of the most prominent US-linked businesses in Cuba. His e-commerce platform Katapulk, described by some as Cuba’s equivalent of Amazon, allows Cubans living abroad to buy and ship goods to family members on the island. Cancio believes the exile community could serve as a pivotal link between Havana and Washington if Cuban-Americans are granted the formal right to own and operate businesses on the island.
“As the Cuban authorities recognize our rights to be part of the Cuban nation, to participate in the economic transformation and potential political reforms of the future, we will be the ones to change Washington,” he said. “We’re going to be the ones to talk to Washington and say, ‘Our country now recognizes us and we want to be part of this transformation.’
Hardliners Push Back: ‘Zero Investment Without Major Policy Change’
Not everyone in the Cuban American community or in Congress is ready to accept economic concessions as sufficient.
Carlos Giménez, a Republican congressman from Florida who is himself Cuban-American, drew a firm line on Friday when he wrote in Spanish on X: “Without MAJOR political changes on the island, there will be ZERO investment from the US.”
The Trump administration struck a similar tone in its warnings to Havana’s back channel, reportedly warning that Cuba risks a fate comparable to Venezuela’s if it does not cooperate.
Citing a person close to the negotiations, The New York Times said Washington DC carefully assessed whether Havana’s planned economic announcements represented real structural reform or just cosmetic tweaks before deciding to issue investment licenses that US businesses would require.
Blackouts, a fuel crisis and the communist government in Cuba run off the road
The background against which all this takes place is an acute humanitarian burden. For three months, the United States effectively blocked Cuba’s access to foreign oil, choking Venezuelan shipments and others. The consequences were dire: rolling blackouts became routine, hospitals rationed services, food shortages deepened, and protests—rare on the island—began to appear.
An evening television program in which Cuban officials planned to announce new economic measures, the Mesa Redonda, or round table, did not air at its scheduled time on Monday. It was not immediately clear if the power outage was to blame.
Some experts have warned that Cuba could run out of its remaining fuel reserves within weeks. Whether Washington’s campaign of coercion will produce the political transformation it seeks — or simply hasten the humanitarian collapse — may be one of the defining questions of Trump’s second term.
