TN may be heading for a water crisis if the Northeast Monsoon does not come to the rescue

The state’s largest dam, Mettur, has about 23 thousand million cubic feet (tmcft), but that is barely enough for the authorities to sustain a sustained release of water to farmers for more than a week in the Cauvery delta. | Photo credit: E. LAKSHMI NARAYANAN

Tamil Nadu may be in for a period of water crisis and lower rice production this time unless the current northeast monsoon rescues it.

Currently, the storage stock in the main 15 irrigation reservoirs is about a third of the total capacity of the reservoirs. In the same period last year, the situation was quite different, with combined storage hovering around 92%.

The state’s largest dam, Mettur, has about 23 thousand million cubic feet (tmcft), but that is barely enough for the authorities to sustain a sustained release of water to farmers for more than a week in the Cauvery delta.

Rainfall during the Northeast Monsoon was moderate as the state received around 240 mm of rainfall against the expected 236 mm. To be considered comfortable, it should gain at least 260mm more, most of which should materialize in November. December usually brings only about 20% of the total monsoon rainfall.

In fact, the current pattern of rainfall the state has registered so far during the season seems to be more in line with the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU) forecast in late September, which predicted the state to get 438 mm during the entire monsoon as against the normal 434 mm, a deviation of one per cent. Referring to the southern peninsular region of the country in general in its early October season outlook, the Meteorological Department said the expected rainfall “is most likely to be normal (88-112%) of the long period average (LPA).

The TNAU, which was more specific in its forecast than the meteorological department, predicted only normal rainfall for the core areas of the Cauvery delta – Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam and Mayiladuthurai. Despite water availability in Mettur not being comfortable and subdued rainfall expected, farmers have taken up paddy cultivation in 3.62 lakh hectares during the samba-thaladi season. Of this, nearly 50% falls under the category of “direct-sown” cultivation, meaning that the seeds are sown directly instead of transplanted. This method is used in times of water scarcity.

However, the problem of water availability seems to be greater in the remaining areas of the state, which can be seen in the way farmers have taken to the paddy field this time. Paddy coverage in non-delta areas of the state is about 1.3,000 hectares less than last year. Compared to the previous year’s share (39%) of direct sowing in the total coverage of the paddy field, this time the share of the method is about 57%. In 2025-26, rice production in the state was 77.5 million tonnes, down about one million tonnes from the previous high of 79.07 million tonnes in 2021-22.

As part of its efforts to protect crops in the Cauvery delta, the state government, at a meeting of the Cauvery Water Regulation Committee (CWRC) and Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA) on Friday, demanded that Karnataka release around 20.3.88 tmcft to Tamil Nadu through 3,000 cubic feet per second (cusecs) per day for 15 days from Saturday (November 7, 2026).

Published – 08 Nov 2026 0:52 IST