There is nothing that excites journalists quite like an agreement that connects after its original term. 14 -year -old Vladimir Guerrero Jr., extending the contract by $ 500 million with Blue Jays came almost two months after the Guerrero term to end the interviews at the beginning of the spring training.
He stopped another week of significant expansion across sports, while Ketel Marte, Jackson Merrill and Kristian Campbell also signed long -term contracts. Let’s dismantle it.
Vladimir Guerrero reaches its brand
The extension works for younger players because the player gives up the potential for greater earnings to alleviate the risk of failure before the free agency, whether through injury, insufficient performance, or anything else. If you are, say, Kristian Campbell, you now take $ 60 million guaranteed when you could earn more, because there is also a chance that you would do much less. The team takes this risk in exchange for discounts on players if the scenarios of a better case are played.
But as the player approaches a free agency, dynamic inverts. Potential earnings of the player are safer and it is a team that risk loss of waiting. Place the team in a sufficiently desperate situation and the player can earn even more than he could have in the open market.
Guerrero has just controlled this exact lever effect to hit its required mark of $ 500 million.
Its last pressure from approximately 450 million to $ 500 million is reminiscent of Francisco Lindor 2021 extensions with METS. At this point, Mets were like these Blue Jays and tried to restore credibility with their fan base by making a great financial commitment. Lindor was able to push Mets for their “best and final offer” and set a new Shortstop record.
The Guerrero Agreement has an average annual value of $ 35.7 million.
Although it adapts to inflation, it is the second largest AAV for the first bass. In February I interrupted contracts for the first bass to three levels (adaptation of inflation):
- ~ 40 million dollars per season (Miguel Cabrera)
- $ 30 to $ 32 million per season (Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Chris Davis and Paul Goldschmidt)
- ~ $ 25 million per season (Matt Olson, Eric Hosmer)
Guerrero settles behind the Cabrera, but in front of all others – a real victory for him to consider how his record fits in this cohort. Add to the fact that it has also received the longest contract in this group for four years, and this is an excellent agreement for Guerrero, which will be considered a scale for other free agents.
First base
Player
Signed
Ages
Fwar1
Fwar
Today AAV
2014
33-40
8.6
22.5
42.2
2012
32-41
3.9
19.1
33.6
2014
30-39
6.4
17.9
30.6
2022
32-37
4.9
15.8
30.5
2019
31-35
5.2
15.4
32.8
2009
29-36
6.9
14.8
33.8
2016
30-36
5.4
13.4
30.8
2012
28-36
4.7
13.2
33.3
2025
27-40
5.5
10.1
35.7
Ketel Marte locks in his future
In general, it is not appropriate to agree to extend the veteran well before it is set to the free agency. You do not know how even introduced players age up to the age of 30, which is how Tigers and Phillies ended with bad shops for Miguel Cabrery and Ryan Howard.
These shops were two years earlier; This one with Marte is basically four years earlier and adds his age-35 years to 37 years to extend, which he originally signed with Arizona in 2022. It is a dynamics that we have not seen for the veteran since the second extension of Evan Longoria with rays (signed in 2013, starting in 2017). Longoria played only one of the six seasons of this extension with Tampa Bay.
But this one feels quite safe compared to some of the others. While the expansion for Cabrera and Howard did not come to legitimate discounts from the open market, this one for Marte. Diamondbacks guarantee Marte for another four years and $ 67.5 million. (In fact, Arizona was very likely to apply her 2028 to the Marte, and the new agreement adds $ 57.5 million in the next three seasons.)
Ketel Marte has long held Diamondbacks. (Chris Codo / Getty Images)
Thus, DiamondBacks appreciate those ages 35 years under 37 years at the age of 35 for more than $ 19 million a year. This is $ 5 million less than José Altuve is gaining in a five -year agreement that has just started at the age of 35. (While signed last spring, Altve’s extension kicked at the beginning of this season, directly when it moved from the second base). The MARTE Agreement is just a little over how Ben Zobrist was awarded as a free agent entering the season at the age of 35 in 2016, when he signed four years and about $ 18 million in today’s money.
In addition, the belief of the Diamondback in the Marte has already paid serious dividends. This is the third extension between the two sides. Arizona extended Marte in 2018 when he was five years away from the free agency and again in 2022, when he was gone for three years. He rewarded this belief every time.
Jackson Merrill gives Padres’s hand
Of all the extensions signed in the last few weeks, Merrill confused me the most. This is probably not a surprise: last month I suggested that it could earn $ 375 million in 15 years, which is much more than $ 135 million in nine years.
It looks as if the model for Merrill’s Deal, which starts in 2026, was an extension of 2019 Ronald Acuña Jr. with Atlanta. This agreement has bought the years of arbitration of Acuña and four years of free agents (if its club options are picked up) for $ 134 million. This agreement will buy Merrill’s referee years and four years of free agents for $ 135 million. To be fair, there are relatively simple escalators that could land another $ 30 million. There is also a $ 21 million club option, which could happen to a player with the top five MVPs.
Jackson Merrill celebrates on the pitch last season after hitting a home run against New York Mets (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today Sports)
From the Acuña agreement, the expansion market has become much more lucrative, with the shops signed by Spencer Stider, Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr., who pushed the market forward for players before the arbitrat. Merrill and Rodríguez compiled 5.3 victories over the replacement (according to Fangraphs) in their newcomers. Rodríguez’s contract guarantees him $ 209.3 million; Merrill is the peak of $ 204 million.
The signing of a nine -digit agreement after one main league season, of course, is nothing to sneeze and Merrill spoke of his connection with the city and organization as a great reason that he wanted to stay for a long time.
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