The US-Israeli attack on Iran is approaching the one-month mark, and one of the declared goals of Operation Epic Fury was to destroy Tehran’s arsenal and manufacturing capacity. From the very first hours, the US and Israel targeted Iran’s missile infrastructure and disabled a large chunk of missile launchers.
But four weeks into the war, contrary to US estimates, Iran continued to launch daily rockets at Israel and Washington’s allies across the Middle East. That’s because the US may not have destroyed as many Iranian missiles as it originally thought.
Only one third of the missiles were destroyed
Reuters, citing five people familiar with US intelligence, said Washington could only say with certainty that it had destroyed about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal.
Read also | The US and Israel have broken up – but not eliminated – the Iranian missile threat
The status of about another third is less clear, but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, four sources told Reuters.
Another source told Reuters the information was similar for Iran’s drone capabilities and said there was some degree of certainty that a third had been destroyed.
The US may never know the real number
The assessment shows that while most of Iran’s missiles are either destroyed or unavailable, Tehran still has a significant stockpile of missiles and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once the fighting stops.
One source said part of the problem is determining how many Iranian missiles were stored in underground bunkers before the war began. The US has not released its estimate of the size of Iran’s pre-war missile stockpile.
A senior U.S. official expresses skepticism about the United States’ ability to accurately assess Iran’s missile capabilities, in part because it is unclear how many are underground and accessible in any way. “I don’t know if we’ll ever have an exact number,” the official said.
Iran has very few missiles left: Trump
The report added that the intelligence contradicted US President Donald Trump’s public remarks yesterday that Iran had “very few missiles” left. He also appeared to acknowledge the threat posed by Iran’s remaining missiles and drones to any future US operations to protect the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Read also | The power of Iran’s arsenal crushed? Hegseth says ‘missiles down 90%, drones down 95%’
US strikes on Wednesday hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets and sank 92 percent of Iran’s navy’s major vessels, according to the Central Command.
Still, the Central Command declined to say exactly how much of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities had been destroyed.
Iran claims to have many missiles
Despite Iran’s acknowledgment that some of its facilities were hit, it says there was no shortage of missiles. The IRGC also claimed that its wartime missile production continued unaffected.
Iranian attempt to attack Diego Garcia
Last week, Iran also shocked the world after it fired two ballistic missiles at the US-British Diego Garcia Air Base, located in the Indian Ocean, well beyond the range of Tehran’s known intermediate-range ballistic missiles, 2,000 kilometers away.
Read also | Iran’s attack on Diego Garcia has been confirmed by Great Britain. Was it related to the US use of the base?
Although one missile failed in flight and the other was intercepted by a US fighter jet, Iran’s ability to hit a military base located 3,800 kilometers away surprised everyone. And to make matters worse, experts are yet to decipher how Iran managed to pull it off.
Key things
- The US military has successfully targeted a significant portion of Iran’s military assets, but remains uncertain about the actual destruction of missile capabilities.
- Iran’s ability to launch long-range missiles poses a persistent threat, demonstrating the resilience of its military infrastructure.
- Understanding the extent of Iran’s missile stockpile complicates the use of underground facilities that could harbor significant capabilities.
