It is estimated that approximately 8.1 million Indians have lost their lives every year in 2018 to 2020. In 2021, however, this number reached 10.2 million. The difference is called “excessive death”, which is a key metric that becomes relevant at the time of extensive unexpected loss of life. Of course, not all these deaths can be attributed to COVID-19, but this is the best possible number one. Do not forget that the pandemic has sent a health care system to chaos, which made it difficult to count and critics also reportedly did not receive the undervaluation of the authorities.
How does it compare it with the Indian official myth?
The Indian Ministry of Health, which used data from different state governments, was attributed in 2021 Covid-19 333 333 deaths. The number of excess deaths that are now obvious is now 6.4 times higher. The ratio can be a measure of the extent of underestimation – whether intentional or unintentional. Since May 5, 2025, the official toll has been 533 665 since the beginning of the pandemia.
Among the large states is the worst ratio for Gujarat (35 times), Madhya Pradesh (20 times), Bihar (14 times), Rajasthan (14 times), West Bengal (14 times), Jharkhand (13 times) and Andhra Pradesh (11 times).
The graph shows the number of excess deaths in large states and how much higher was compared to real deaths.
Why did it take so long to get these numbers?
We don’t know. In 2022, the World Health Organization published its own estimates of excess death, as well as several other private agencies and scientists. The center did not require them all and plunged asperze on their intentions and methods. They all estimated tolls several times higher than the official number.
Therefore, its own SRS government data was expected to close the gap in an official way. The report is usually published within 24 months of the end of the calendar year. However, data from 2021 were published only now, three years after the 2020 data came out.
What are excessive death?
Naturally, governments cannot capture a real pandemic tax such as Covid-19: Not all patients are tested and the definition of “death death” is complicated. This left “excessive death” of the best placed method to estimate tolls.
“Excessive death” is the difference between the number of deaths in an unusual period (such as 2020 and 2021) and the number of deaths in a normal year. This can give a feeling of direct and indirect toll pandemic, such as Covid-19. In the calculations in this article, we used the 2018-2020 average as “normal”.
What is SRS?
Before that, check out the civil registration system (CRS). In India, this is a report that provides the number of deaths registered in a given year. Mark the word “registered”: It is not enough because it lacks death that has not been registered.
That is why the government carries out another sample survey whose results are reported through SRS. Each year, he uses a national sample of households to estimate mortality among other statistics. With this and annual population projection, real deaths – registered and unregistered can be estimated.
But how was 2020 a normal year? What did the SRS report from 2020 show?
2020 SRS, which was released in May 2022, soon after the release of the WHO estimates, the mortality rate was 6.0 per 1,000 inhabitants. This meant about 8.1 million deaths, which was actually since 2019. On the one hand, it was not completely unexpected, because fewer people left their homes during locking and the first wave was much less deadly. On the other hand, it is a mysterious number, because it was almost the same as the number of registered deaths in India this year, according to CRS, which means that up to 99.9% of deaths in India were registered in 2020.
What about 2021, a year that saw the devastating second wave?
This is where the data fog continued for three years, which has made private scientists to try to fill in the gap with indirect estimates from other sources. However, most of them have encountered rejection.
The SRS report, which is now published, estimates that the mortality rate of that year increased up to 7.5 per 1,000 people, from the range of 6-6.2 in 2018–2020. This is reflected in approximately 10.2 million deaths. CRS (which was also released on May 7), again reported almost as many registered deaths, confirming that almost all Indians now register death.
On May 7, another source of data was published: Report “Medical Certification of the Causes of Death” (MCCD). In 2021, 413,580 COVID-19 deaths were attributed. But that would also be a small share of the actual Covid toll: the same report said that only 23% of all deaths in India in 2021 were medically certified (ie it got into this report).
What will be next?
The Covid-19 pandemic was announced due to a large scale of immunity by both vaccination and previous infection. However, many Indian families have been left with a permanent impact due to the death of loved ones. The latest data give us a better, official feeling of how many Indians could actually suffer. Hopefully, this will help the creation of politicians in the future health care crises.
(Tagstotranslate) Covid Death Toll
