As the war in West Asia rages into its fourth week, European leaders have reached a consensus: not to get involved militarily. On March 16, after the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, most European leaders said an emphatic NO to involvement in the Iran war.
On March 18, during his speech to the Bundestag (German parliament), Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Germany would not participate in a US-Israeli war against Iran.
Iran-Israel War Update March 25, 2026
“To this day there is no convincing plan for how this operation could succeed. Washington did not consult us and did not consider European help necessary,” Mr Merz said.
This is a far cry from the early days of the war, when Germany, France and the UK issued a joint statement blaming Iran for its “reckless attacks”. Mr. Merz even went so far as to say that international law does not apply in the case of Iran. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and head of foreign policy Kaja Kallas, who blamed Iran for the conflict, have been more measured in their statements recently.
The change in attitude is evident from US President Donald Trump’s call for help in securing the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the start of the war on February 28. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG flows through this strait.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is the only European leader who has not changed his stance. “We reject unilateral military action by the United States and Israel that constitutes an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order,” read a tweet from Mr. Sanchez on February 28. Spain doubled down on its “no war” declaration, forcing many European countries to reassess their positions.
“The positions of EU member states differ quite significantly in the current conflict. Due to their different historical ties to Israel, the members have different positions. Germany has a special relationship with Israel due to its history. This is also reflected in Iran,” said Dr. Linn Selle, Head of the European Center at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). According to her, even during the Iraq war in 2003, there were dramatic contradictions within the EU member states.
“There are different shades of perspectives on Iran, but they are not fundamentally different. After the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting (March 16), cohesion is developing among member states. There is no appetite across the EU for military support for this war,” Selle said.
Impact on Ukraine
Dr. Markus Loewe, economist and Middle East and North Africa research coordinator at the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), noted that a large number of Germans consider the war a violation of international law. A recent national poll on March 5 shows that 58% of German respondents called this war unjustified.
“The only reason Germany is not actively opposed to US-Israeli actions is the fear of doing anything against the will of the US government. Germany fears that a US refusal would force it to withdraw support from Ukraine. But Germany also relies heavily on the US for its own defense,” Loewe said.
On March 4, when Mr. Merz met Mr. Trump at the White House, he said that Germany was “on the same page” as Mr. Trump when it came to the goals of the Iran war. Mr Merz’s silence as Mr Trump threatened an “embargo” on Spain sparked a backlash in Europe. In his defence, Mr Merz said he had defended the Spanish and British leaders behind closed doors in their conversation with Mr Trump.
“The initial German response was kind of based on pandering to the US, and now that’s starting to show, given the domestic impact of the war. Higher energy prices, domestic reverberations of the conflict, potential cyber attacks and other concerns around that. Germany is now more careful not to be drawn into the conflict,” Selle said.
With the Russo-Ukraine war still ongoing in Europe, the main priority for Germany and the EU is to ensure that the US continues to support Ukraine. Germany’s defense chief also warned in June 2025 that Russia could expand this war to attack NATO countries by 2029.
“After Poland, Germany would be next in line if Russia decided to expand its operations,” Mr. Loewe said.
This prospect is alarming for Germany, which has no nuclear deterrent of its own. After the end of World War II, the US, British and French promised to defend Germany because they did not want Germany to rearm. As a result, the German military is not the strongest and has limited strategic weapons because it has always relied on US defense, Mr. Loewe noted. The US even has its largest air force based outside the US in Germany (in Ramstein), which serves as a critical logistics and command center for the US military.
“But this does not mean that Germany supports the Iran war. The base in Germany has always been treated as an extraterritorial base. When Mr. Trump asked other countries to support the US in the Strait of Hormuz, the German government rejected the request,” Mr. Loewe said.
“As military capabilities are being used in the Iran conflict and in the Middle East region, there is less potential to send military support to Ukraine. That is a concrete consequence of the Iran conflict. There is also a fear of political fallout,” Selle said.
When Trump announced a 30-day exemption for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and oil products on March 13, it drew immediate criticism from Europe. “The US unilateral decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil exports is very worrying because it has an impact on European security. The weakening of sanctions increases Russian resources to wage an offensive war against Ukraine,” European Council President António Costa said on X.
The Brent crude oil index rose from $62 on March 2 to reach $114 on March 19. The latest escalation in the war, caused by Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, prompted retaliatory drone strikes by Iran on oil and gas sites in neighboring Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Many analysts warn that this attack, coupled with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could further increase global oil and gas prices.
This is not ideal news for Europe’s largest economy, Germany, which has seen negative growth for two consecutive years.
“Germany is not directly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz and its closure has no direct impact. But because of the volatile markets, it has an immediate impact on Germany,” Ms Selle said.
Economic shock
“Germany has only a limited set of political options in the short term. Due to its dependence on fossil fuel imports, the country is exposed to fluctuations in international oil and natural gas prices. If the conflict persists in the long term, it will experience a slowdown in economic recovery, which is already under pressure due to trade tensions with the US and the erosion of the competitiveness of its exports on global markets,” said Dr. (DIW).
Due to the current fuel price shock, DIW has revised its forecast downwards, expecting slower economic growth of 1% and higher inflation in Germany of 2.4%.
“Rising energy prices will fuel inflation and increase the costs of energy-intensive industries. We have suffered from negative growth for the last two years and 2026 was supposed to be a year of economic recovery. I don’t see that happening if the war is prolonged,” Mr Loewe said.
Ms. Chowdhry also expects a longer recovery period for the German economy. “A significant share of household consumption expenditure is fuel. A shock to fuel prices therefore has important distributional effects and can exacerbate economic inequality. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz also has implications for food security, with one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade using this route,” Ms Chowdhry said.
DGAP’s Ms Selle believes it is too early to talk about an economic recovery and it could be swallowed up by rising energy costs.
Petrol pumps in Germany are already seeing a surge, forcing the German government to adopt the so-called Austrian model, which limits price increases at the pumps to just once a day.
“This has shed light on the lack of competition in the sector in Germany, where a few businesses control the entire value chain from running refineries to running gas stations,” Ms Chowdhry said.
The whole of Europe will feel the reverberations of the energy shock. According to a report by the Atlantic Council, gas reserves in Europe are currently below 30%, a five-year low. They should reach 90% by November. With Qatar’s LNG supplies effectively shut down and Europe rejecting Russian energy sources, this would mean that Europe has to look for alternatives, which could result in higher prices.
Lack of European influence
According to recent statements by Mrs von der Leyen and Mrs Kallas, the Iranian regime is a threat to peace in West Asia. Neither of them publicly called on the US and Israel for this war, but their statements focused on de-escalation measures and reiterating that member states do not want to be drawn into war. These double standards have drawn criticism from left-wing MEPs.
Many MEPs also say Ms von der Leyen’s statements on the Iran war go beyond her domain. Her direct diplomatic talks with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council, calls for a “credible transition in Iran” fall under the purview of the EU Council. According to EU rules, the European Commission and its president have no formal foreign policy role.
“Ms von der Leyen raised the question of how far Europe can keep defending international law when others are breaking it. But if breaking international law is justified when a purpose is served, that would set a precedent for the future,” Mr Loewe said, adding that the ever-changing targets in the current war do not help matters. Mr. Trump has turned from neutralizing imminent threats to regime change in Iran to dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities to destroying Iran’s navy since the start of the war.
“The Europeans were on the front lines of the JCPOA negotiations, where they played a constructive role. But now it’s a very hard escalation. At the moment, the Europeans are not the central actors. I hope that once the conflict is over, there will be a more structured conversation about the future realignment of relations and the EU could play a role to ensure that the shipping lanes are secured,” Selle said.
Mr. Loewe agrees that Europe has very little influence in the ongoing war. “What we could do is work to stabilize countries in the Middle East, including Iran, from within. The worst-case scenario for this conflict is destabilization in the Middle East or regime changes leading to civil wars or the fear that the new regimes will become even more extremist,” Loewe said, adding that Germany and Europe could play the role of mediators in the future.
As for the economic backlash facing Europe, the European Central Bank has warned of inflation and economic slowdown if the war drags on.
“Given the high level of uncertainty at the current stage, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates steady while closely monitoring the crisis to see how severe and long-lasting the shock may be,” Ms Chowdhry said.
(Nimish Sawant is a freelance journalist based in Berlin)
