As the Iran war has cast a long shadow over the Persian Gulf over the past two weeks, what once appeared to be a region of glittering airports, financial hubs and endless construction now looks extremely vulnerable. India has already recognized the gravity of the crisis. The Ministry of External Affairs said that in less than a week since the start of the Gulf War, more than 52,000 Indians have already returned from the Gulf under special arrangements and the number may increase in the coming days. India has also repeatedly issued alerts regarding West Asia, showing that this is a real regional emergency.
For the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, the danger is not just military, but structural. These states have built their prosperity on stability, open sea lanes, energy exports, global finance and migrant labor. The long war threatens each of these pillars. Iran’s strategic logic is also clear enough. Tehran does not view the several GCC monarchies as neutral neighbors but as part of a broader US-led security architecture in the region. This perception is influenced by the long presence of Western military bases and the political afterlife of the Abraham Accords, which began formal normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020. In Iran’s view, the Persian Gulf cannot claim neutrality without remaining tied to the American security power and, in some cases, new agreements with Israel.
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The socioeconomic consequences are severe. Even where missiles do not land directly, fear itself can become an economic weapon. Insurance costs are rising. Transport routes are uncertain. Investors are backing off. Flight schedules are disrupted. Tourism is slowing down. Energy markets are becoming volatile. The Strait of Hormuz remains the region’s most sensitive critical point, and any threat there directly affects oil and gas flows.
The GCC states have tried to diversify, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but diversification does not remove vulnerability. It only changes its form. Dubai depends on trust, connectivity and circulation. Saudi Arabia’s massive transformation plans require huge capital and long-term predictability. Qatar’s strength in liquefied natural gas depends on uninterrupted maritime traffic. Oman’s ports depend on trade stability. In short, the prosperity of the Persian Gulf rests not only on oil, but also on the belief that it is safer than the rest of West Asia. War damages this faith.
Migrant workers bear the brunt
The deepest blow, however, falls on migrant workers. The GCC hosts more than 25 million Asian migrants, making it one of the largest labor migration corridors in the world. Indians form one of the largest communities in the GCC. Official Indian figures put the population of Indian origin in the UAE at over 3.4 million and in Saudi Arabia at nearly 2.6 million; Qatar also hosts a fairly large Indian community. It is not an abstract number for Kerala. The Kerala Migration Survey 2023 found that remittances accounted for 23.2% of the state’s net domestic product, showing how deeply the state’s economy is tied to migration income. The same report highlighted that transfers were 1.7 times higher than the state’s income. This means that any shock in the Persian Gulf will quickly become a Kerala social crisis.
Low-wage workers in the Gulf, employed in construction, transportation, retail, domestic work and services, remain caught between fear and necessity. Image to illustrate | Photo credit: AP
In such a situation, migrant workers are always the most exposed. Leaders can leave first. Capital can move digitally. Diplomats can negotiate to leave. But low-wage workers in construction, transportation, retail, domestic work and services remain caught between fear and necessity. They cannot leave their jobs easily. They often live in shared accommodation far from urban buffer zones. They have to send money home even as uncertainty grows. For many families in Kerala, remittances are not an extra income. It pays for food, education, health care, housing loans and daily survival. A long war therefore means more than temporary anxiety. It can lead to job losses, wage delays, stalled projects, back migration and a renewed social burden on Kerala’s already strained economy.
Strategic Mistake: Editorial on US, Iran War
The larger lesson is thought through. The modern order in the Persian Gulf was built on external security guarantees, hydrocarbon wealth and imported labor. The Iran war shows how fragile this order really is. If the conflict continues, the GCC can strengthen its security systems, limit labor mobility and prioritize national manpower. This would narrow the space for skilled or low-skilled migrants from India. Even if the war soon fades away, the psychological fracture remains. The Gulf will continue to be important to India, but the old certainty of the “Gulf Dream” has been shaken. For millions of Indian families, especially in Kerala, the bridge across the Arabian Sea still stands, but now it is under fire. Jean-Paul Sartre once wrote, “When the rich make war, it is the poor who die,” and in the modern Persian Gulf, it is the migrants who lose their lifelines.
The author is the Director, Inter-University Center for Social Science Research, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala.
Published – March 12, 2026 12:53 PM IST
