Southwest Monsoon to hit Kerala three days later

The southwest monsoon, crucial for kharif sowing, arrived in Kerala on Thursday, three days after its usual start date of June 1. However, forecasters said the delay remains within the normal range.

“A delay of three days is within the standard deviation,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

As per IMD’s earlier forecast, the onset of monsoon over Kerala was expected around May 26 with an error margin of four days, extending the likely window to May 30.

In its latest update, the IMD said the southwest monsoon has advanced over the remaining parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, parts of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep region, Kerala and Mahe, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the remaining Comoros region, the southeast Bay of Bengal and other areas northeast of southwest Bengal.

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An early and favorable monsoon is important for India as it helps revive rural demand, lift consumption and boost overall economic growth. India remains heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon, which accounts for more than 70% of the country’s annual rainfall.

Good rainfall boosts the agricultural economy and increases rural demand. At present, only about 55% of India’s net sown area has irrigation facilities, leaving the remaining agricultural land dependent on monsoon rains. Therefore, any lack of rainfall becomes significant as it could increase irrigation costs for farmers.

In its updated long-term forecast issued on May 29, the IMD said rainfall during the June-September monsoon season is likely to be 90% of the long-term average (LPA), signaling an emerging El Niño pattern, up from 92% forecast in April. Rainfall is considered normal if it falls between 96-104%.

Southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), comprising most of the country’s rain-fed agricultural areas, is most likely to be below normal (below 94% LPA).

“This is positive news for farmers as it will boost the pace of kharif sowing. In my view, a below-normal monsoon is not a big problem. If rainfall is well distributed across regions, the impact is likely to be limited,” said Sudhir Panwar, an agricultural policy expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.

However, the wider implications could extend beyond agriculture. The Reserve Bank of India warned in its April 8 report that below-normal rainfall and possible El Niño conditions pose pro-inflationary risks. “Persistently elevated energy prices due to conflict in West Asia and possible El Niño conditions (which could have a negative impact on the southwest monsoon) pose pro-inflationary risks,” the RBI said in its report.

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Separately, the Federation of All India Farmers Associations (FAIFA) said in a report released on Thursday that El Niño events have historically been associated with weaker monsoons, moisture deficits and increased risks during the kharif season.

In this context, the industry body said agricultural planning should increasingly focus on preparedness, adaptation and risk management rather than reactive responses to climate-related disruptions.

The report advocated a dual ecological and technological transition, including restoring soil health, reducing over-reliance on chemical inputs, improving water-use efficiency, promoting crop diversification, and promoting nature-based agricultural practices.

“By combining traditional environmental wisdom, scientific innovation, digital technologies and farmer-centric policies, India has an opportunity to build an agricultural system that is productive, sustainable and prepared for future climate shocks,” said PS Murali Babu, President of FAIFA.

Meanwhile, the IMD said widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall occurred over Kerala in the last two days. The IMD said conditions remain favorable for the monsoon to advance further into parts of the central Arabian Sea, Goa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, other areas of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, southwest Bay of Bengal and parts of northeastern states over the next two to three days.

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According to Crisil Intelligence, sub-normal rainfall during July-September is expected to create productivity risks for major kharif crops as this period coincides with critical stages of yield generation. While July is primarily associated with crop establishment and vegetative growth, August and September coincide with flowering, fruit set, pod development and boll formation, making crops increasingly vulnerable to moisture throughout the season.

“As a result, yield realization across key crop categories is likely to come under pressure, underscoring the need for close monitoring, adaptive crop management and timely mitigation measures. Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall will remain a key determinant of ultimate crop outcomes,” said Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence.