Strong cross -ectatorial flow could indicate the development of cyclone, which is typical in the month before the beginning of the monsoon. | Photo Credit: B. Jothi Ramalingam
The southwestern monsoon system is expected to advance to the Southern Andaman Sea, in some parts of the Southeast Gulf of Bengal and the Nicobar Islands around 13 May, the Indian meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday (May 6, 2025). It is almost a week earlier than the normal date of the beginning of May 20 and “relatively unusual”, said a Hindi meteorologist.
The normal date for the monsoon above Kerala is 1 June and usually takes about 10 days for the system to reach Keraly from Nicobar Islands. “The premature arrival on Nicobar does not necessarily mean that the monsoon will reach Keraly soon,” said D. Sivananda Pai, a senior meteorologist, IMD, “May 13 is a bit unusual, but only suggests that the monsoon cross flow has strengthened.
He said that a strong cross Equator flow can indicate the development of a cyclone typical in the month before the monsoon onset.
The monsoon system is divided into two branches: the Bengal branch Bay of Bengal and the Arab Sea branch after arriving in the Bengal region. It is the arrival of the Arabian branch of the sea in Kerala, which announces the onset of the monsoon above the mainland India. The Bengal branch fits within a week, through northeast India.
IMD has a specialized monsoon model to predict the date of boarding above Kerala and is expected to announce it in mid -May. Last month, IMD said India would probably receive “above normal” monsoon precipitation, or 5% more than a historical diameter of 87 cm. If it were brought, it would be “over normal” rain for the second year. Last year, India received 8% more than the historical average from June to September.
Last year, the southwestern monsoon became Keral on May 30, two days before normal and the day before the date of prognosis 31 May.
It was also unusual in that both branches of the monsoon at the same time planted through northeast India and Kerala. Both will eventually join the middle India and maintain the southwest monsoon by the end of September.
Published – May 6, 2025 23:53
