Russian oil exports fell sharply in November as buyers showed increased caution over the risks associated with tougher US sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report.
Russian oil exported 420 kb/d (thousand barrels per day) last month, the agency pointed out in its report.
This led to a loss for Moscow as lower Russian oil exports dragged down oil revenue to $11 billion, down $3.6 billion from last year.
“Total oil exports from Russia fell by about 400 kb/d to 6.9 mb/d in November as buyers assessed the implications and risks of tougher sanctions,” the IEA said in a report.
Urals oil prices also experienced a sharp decline due to a drop in exports, with rates falling $8.2/bbl to $43.52/bbl. This resulted in export earnings being squeezed to their lowest level since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.
One barrel corresponds to approximately 159 liters.
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Global oil supply is falling
The IEA report also said global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending the cumulative decline from September’s record 109 mb/d (million barrels per day) to 1.5 mb/d.
OPEC accounted for more than 75% of the overall decline in global oil supplies, it found, driven mainly by supply disruptions in sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela.
The group contributed to an 80% drop in deliveries over the past two months, reflecting large unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, along with continued declines in Russia and Venezuela.
In contrast, Iran’s oil load has remained strong at around 1.9 mb/d in recent months.
Among non-OPEC producers, the United States, Brazil and biofuels contributed the most to global oil supply.
Russia faces US sanctions
The United States has warned several countries that they could face additional tariffs and punitive trade measures if they continue to buy Russian oil.
The Trump administration has imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, citing continued purchases of Russian oil. This was in addition to the 25% tariffs previously announced by US President Donald Trump.
Global oil supply will increase
Despite recent setbacks, the IEA said global oil supply is still expected to rise by 3 mb/d in 2025 and a further 2.4 mb/d in 2026. On the demand side, global oil demand is forecast to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic and trade conditions.
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The agency also raised its 2026 demand outlook to 860 kb/d, up 90 kb/d from an earlier estimate.
The report pointed out that gas oil and jet kerosene will drive half of demand growth this year, while heating oil continues to lose ground to replacement by natural gas and solar in power generation.
Key things
- Russia’s oil exports have fallen significantly due to increased US sanctions, impacting revenues.
- Global oil supply has faced a cumulative decline, mainly due to OPEC cuts and sanctions against Russia.
- Despite current challenges, the IEA predicts future growth in global oil supply and demand.
