The Kremlin has made proposals that could lead to Russia re-adopting the dollar as part of a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration, according to an internal Russian document reviewed by Bloomberg.
A high-level memorandum drafted this year details seven points where the Kremlin says Russian and American economic interests could converge following an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. He sees the two countries working together to push fossil fuels over greener alternatives, as well as joint investments in natural gas, oil and critical raw materials, and windfalls for American companies.
The proposal, which has been circulating among senior Russian officials, provides a previously undisclosed insight into Kremlin thinking and tactics as potential U.S.-Russia economic deals are negotiated as a key element of any future peace deal for Ukraine.
At the heart of the offer is Russia’s return to a dollar settlement system, a move that would mark a stunning reversal of Kremlin policy and a potentially dramatic shake-up for global finance.
The US has already proposed phasing out sanctions against Russia as part of any peace deal, a necessary first step to get the country back to trading in dollars. But what the Kremlin memorandum contemplates would go much further.
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Until now, a key focus for Russia has been to find alternatives to the dollar, rather than reconnecting with the US-led system, as President Vladimir Putin seeks to deepen his relationship with China. Because of this, Western government officials familiar with the content of the document said they thought it extremely unlikely that Putin would ultimately seek a deal that ran counter to Beijing’s interests.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to an email seeking comment. It is unclear whether Russia has presented any of the points contained in the document to the US.
Long before the all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin worked to reduce Russia’s dependence on the US currency as part of a push by rival economic powers to challenge US financial hegemony. The rationale for this effort became apparent when the US and its allies used their control over dollar transactions to impose sanctions on a wide swath of the Russian economy after the war began. Since then, Moscow has sought to develop trade with alternative currencies and systems, particularly with China and several other countries such as India.
So on one level, a return to dollar settlement would mean submitting once again to Washington’s financial dominance and reversing efforts to make the Russian economy less vulnerable to US pressure. At the same time, it would give the Trump administration a major victory in its apparent goal of weakening the relationship between Moscow and Beijing.
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Other details of the plan also appear to have been designed to play into the ambitions Trump has set for himself in other areas. The idea that US companies should be compensated for past losses in Russia echoes a demand the US president has made from Venezuela, while a shift away from low-carbon technologies favored by Europe and China is likely to appeal to a president known for his long tirades against wind turbines.
Western officials familiar with the memo said some of the proposals appeared to be designed specifically to deepen the rift between the US’s European allies and Ukraine. Others are distant promises with potentially large numbers that could lure the US president into a deal and then never materialize, they said, asking not to be identified while discussing the private document.
They also noted that the Kremlin is unlikely to want to move away from China, as Beijing has become a key supplier of components and raw materials to Russia’s war machine as Western sanctions have closed off other sources.
However, the memorandum argues that a return to the dollar system would allow Russia to expand its foreign exchange market and reduce the volatility of its balance of payments. For the US, the paper says, such a move would further strengthen the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency and could reduce global trade imbalances by equalizing energy costs between China and the US.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told a group of reporters earlier this month that Russia and the US were negotiating massive bilateral economic deals alongside peace talks with Kyiv.
Information about Moscow’s offer, which the Ukrainian president called the ‘Dmitriev package’ after Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, was gathered by Ukrainian intelligence, Zelenskiy said. Dmitriev also heads Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
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