Rajya Sabha. | Photo credit: ANI
Sweeping changes in the state assemblies of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal in the wake of the recent elections will also alter the composition of the opposition benches in the Rajya Sabha, with the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam likely to make its debut in the upper house in the next round of elections expected in mid-June.
If AIADMK MP C. Ve. Shanmugam, who won from the Mailam Assembly constituency in Tamil Nadu, resigns his Rajya Sabha seat, then TVK could enter Parliament earlier than expected. Mr Shanmugam told The Hindu that he would take a decision on the matter in the next few days. If he decides to stand down from the upper house, then an election for his seat could be held along with 22 other seats from eight states due to go to the polls in June. Given TVK’s strength in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, it should be able to win the seat.
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Left failure
The biggest trouble will be for the parties of the Left. Three Kerala MPs are retiring in April 2027: Abdul Wahab of the IUML and John Brittas and V. Sivadasan of the CPI(M). The Left Democratic Front’s collective strength of 35 seats in the Kerala Assembly is one less than the required number to elect a Rajya Sabha MP. In April 2028, their strength in the upper house will further decline when three more seats in Kerala go to polls, with AA Rahim of the CPI(M) and P Sandosh Kumar of the CPI among those to retire. Again, the left is unlikely to have the numbers to get any of its candidates elected. CPI MP PP Suneer, who is due to retire in 2030, will then be the last left MP in the upper house.
DMK benches will feel the impact in June 2028 when six MPs from Tamil Nadu are due to retire. Of these, three are from the DMK, two from the AIADMK and one from the Congress. Given the current assembly elected on May 4 and the Congress’s subsequent promise to support TVK, the DMK is likely to return only one MP to the Rajya Sabha.
Delayed impact for TMC
In the Trinamool Congress, the first crackdown will be slightly delayed until August 2029, when the next round of Rajya Sabha elections for West Bengal will be held. Six members from the state, five from the TMC and one from the BJP, are set to retire, including Rajya Sabha TMC leader Derek O’Brien. Based on its current strength in the State Assembly, the TMC will be able to elect only one member to the upper house.
The next round of TMC seat attrition is expected in April 2030 when four of its MPs will retire, reducing its tally to six till the next round of assembly elections in the state. A TMC leader warned that these calculations would only hold if none of his MLAs present switched parties. “Given the political atmosphere, such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out,” the leader said.
Good news for Congress
Between the two rounds of Rajya Sabha elections this year, scheduled for June and November, the Congress will get three extra seats. Four MPs from Karnataka are retiring in June, including Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda. Congress is able to win three of these four seats and get two more berths. However, this gain will be neutralized by his loss in Gujarat.
The Congress is hoping that its ally in Jharkhand will concede the state’s lone Rajya Sabha seat going to polls in June, and that it will win another seat from Himachal Pradesh in the November elections. By November, the Congress strength will increase from 30 to 33. The Congress will also strengthen its strength at the cost of Left members in the Rajya Sabha in April 2027 and 2028.
Published – 06 May 2026 22:55 IST
