Kerala is on the brink of high-profile elections on April 9, which could mark a turning point in the state’s electoral history. In 2021, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which broke tradition with its consecutive victory, is now seeking a third term. However, it is beset by a raft of allegations, mutiny within its ranks and high-profile defections to the Congress and the BJP. These elections are therefore taking place on a very different political field. The Congress-led United Democratic Front is banking on a palpable anti-incumbency undercurrent, the signs of which were evident when it trounced the LDF in the December 2025 local body elections; it won a vote share of 38.8% against the LDF’s 33.4% and won a majority of local bodies. The Congress-led alliance fielded a handful of Left leaders who defected, causing agony to its cadres in some places, even as it was quelled by senior leader K. Sudhakaran’s mutiny during candidate selection. Congress is trying to counter the development rhetoric of the Left by offering its own social programs aimed at women and youth. Attempting to turn the tide in the bipolar establishment is the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, which wrested the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation from the Left Front in the December 2025 local body elections through deft electoral engineering. However, his vote share fell to 14.7% from 19.2% in 2024 when he made his Lok Sabha debut from Kerala. Aiming to build on what it sees as a gradual shift in the political landscape, the BJP has drawn several disaffected leaders from both main coalitions and expanded its reach by aligning itself with emerging groups such as Twenty20, which is claiming a foothold in parts of central Kerala. The alliance is also attempting to extend its reach to minority communities, particularly among Catholic Christians in central Travancore.
The ruling coalition has largely retained its existing lawmakers, projecting continuity and trying to refute claims of anti-establishment. It is also banking on its decade-long social development initiatives and is seeking to capitalize on perceived uncertainty in Congress over its chief ministerial candidate. Apart from the familiar rhetoric of development, a complex interplay of factors is likely to determine the outcome in each constituency, with demographics being the key variable. First and foremost is the alignment of Kerala’s two main religious minorities, Muslims and Christians, who make up nearly 47% of the electorate. A host of issues are expected to shape voter sentiment, from the Union government’s approach to the state, the Sabarimala gold theft, concerns over land encroachment to agrarian distress and the debate on political Islam.
Published – 26 March 2026 0:20 AM IST
