Pre-election polls in Israel: Netanyahu ahead, but can he secure a majority? What we know about the results, the largest side | Today’s news
An updated Israeli election survey revealed a dramatic reversal in trends. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, which had previously trailed by a few points, took the lead over the opposition bloc with 52 seats. Exit polls, however, showed no clear path to a majority for either coalition.
Here’s what we know about the Israeli election results:
Pre-election polls predicted a neck-and-neck tie for pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs, with the two Arab parties holding the balance. Neither bloc is expected to win a 61-seat majority in the Knesset.
A party or coalition needs to win at least 62 of the 120 seats in the Knesset to form a majority government in Israel. Here’s what the various exit polls revealed:
Channel 12 Exit Polls
Quick answers to key questions
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An updated Channel 12 exit poll put Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc ahead with 52 seats compared to 49 for the opposition bloc. Kan 11 projected two blocks tied to 51 seats.
Likud was predicted to be the largest party with 27 seats in the Channel 12 exit poll. Yashar followed with 21 seats.
Pre-election polls did not predict that either bloc would win a majority in the 120-member Knesset. The formation of the government depends on whether the parties together secure enough seats and agree on a coalition.
Channel 12 projected 52 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, Kan 11 projected 51, Pollster Direct projected 55, and Channel 14 projected 60. These were exit poll estimates, unconfirmed results.
Yes. Israel’s coalition-based parliamentary system means that the party with the most seats does not automatically form a government. A party can govern if it can form a coalition with sufficient parliamentary support.
In its updated exit poll, Channel 12 gave the pro-Netanyahu bloc 52 seats and the anti-Netanyahu bloc 49, compared to 50 and 52 in the previous poll, The Times of Israel reported.
The remaining 19 seats were held by the predominantly Arab parties Joint List and Ra’am.
What has changed compared to previous exit poll results?
Channel 12 exit polls: Yashar 21 (from 22), Likud 27 (from 24), Yisrael Beytenu 7 (from 8), Joint List 12 (from 11), Shas 7 (from 8), The Democrats 9 (from 10).
Kan 11 exit polls
Meanwhile, Kan 11 gave the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs 51 seats each in its updated exit poll, compared to 50 and 52 in the previous poll at 11:04 p.m.
What has changed compared to previous exit poll results?
Kan 11: Likud 27 (from 25), The Democrats 9 (from 10), Otzma Yehudit 6 (from 7).
Pollster Pollster Direct Exit Polls
Pollster Direct Polls predicted 55 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 49 for the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot and 16 for Arab parties.
Channel 14 exit polls
Another poll by the Filber agency presented by the pro-government Channel 14 projected 60 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 43 for the opposition and 17 for Arab parties.
According to Channel 14, opposition Zionist parties opposing Netanyahu hold 43 seats between them, while majority Arab parties hold the remaining 17 seats.
The biggest party
Netanyahu’s Likud emerged as the largest party with a lead of 27 seats according to the Channel 12 exit poll. It was followed by Yashar with 21 seats, B’Yachad and the Joint List with 12 seats.
Record vote
Israel’s October 27 election, the first since a Hamas attack that led to the Gaza War on October 2, 2023, saw a near-final turnout of 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999.
Eisenkot urges Netanyahu to step down
Chairman Yashar Gadi Eisenkot reportedly called on Netanyahu to “accept the people’s vote of no confidence” and leave political life, adding that “with such a high turnout, it would be a mistake to hold another election.”
“I will do everything in my power to create a Zionist government that will serve everyone,” the Times of Israel quoted him as saying.
He described the envisaged coalition as committed to “universal military service” and the “dismantling of Hamas” and says it must “respect and see all parts of society”.
Israeli Elections: Key Political Parties in race:
Two main blocs are fighting to form the government in the country.
The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and joined by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.
These include United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas—both conservative religious parties—and Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Becalel Smotrich.
The main opposition coalition consists of four Jewish-led opposition movements: the Yashar party, the Democrats, the Yisrael Beiteinu party, and the Together alliance.
The general election, the first since the Hamas-led massacre of October 7, 2023, unfolded amid deep national divisions over responsibility for security, state leadership and the independence of Israel’s democratic institutions.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has remained at the center of power for 19 years, faced a formidable challenge from former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, which led in various opinion polls ahead of the vote.
