Pakistan may divide 4 provinces into 12-15: Why Asim Munir wants to redraw borders and what it means

Pakistan could be heading for its biggest administrative restructuring in decades, with army chief Asim Munir reportedly considering a “divide and conquer” plan that would split the country’s four provinces into smaller units, a move that could reshape the distribution of political power.

Munir wants to split Pakistan’s four existing provinces — Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan — to create 12-15 new provinces or up to 160 smaller administrative territories, The Economist reported.

The proposal would mark a major departure from Pakistan’s existing provincial structure, which has remained largely unchanged since the country’s creation in 1947.

While the argument for smaller administrative units centers on improving governance and public service delivery, restructuring could also weaken established political power centers and increase the military establishment’s influence over provincial affairs, according to the report.

Why Pakistan may consider redrawing its provincial borders

Pakistan’s four provinces differ significantly in population, geographic size, and administrative needs. Punjab, the country’s most populous province, has about 128 million people, more than half of the national population. Balochistan, despite being Pakistan’s largest province by area, has a population of approximately 15 million, or approximately 6% of the population.

The differences have fueled arguments that the existing administrative structure makes effective governance difficult, especially in densely populated regions where public services are already under pressure.

In Punjab, rural residents can travel for hours to access government services. Less than a quarter of the province’s residents have reliable access to safe drinking water at home, The Economist reports.

Munir reportedly argued that the provinces were too large to be managed effectively, contributing to Pakistan’s poor administrative and economic performance.

Asim Munir’s growing influence in Pakistan

The proposal comes against the backdrop of the military’s continued dominance over Pakistan’s political system.

The armed forces directly controlled the country for more than two-fifths of its existence, while elected governments often operated in the shadow of the military.

Munir, despite the presence of the president and prime minister in the civilian leadership, emerged as the most powerful figure in Pakistan, according to the report.

The military’s influence extends beyond security and foreign policy. The Economist highlighted the armed forces’ access to public resources, ownership of valuable land and involvement in business that can intimidate competitors.

Why Punjab and Sindh are politically significant

Pakistan’s provinces are more than just administrative divisions. They are also important political bastions, with established parties and regional identities shaping the electoral contest.

Punjab has traditionally been the main power base for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), while Sindh remains a stronghold of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

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The division of these provinces could change the electoral arithmetic, redistribute political influence and change the relationship between the provincial governments and the centre.

Can smaller provinces solve Pakistan’s economic problems?

Pakistan faces persistent economic challenges, including weak growth, high inflation and high debt servicing costs.

Also complicating the reform argument is the military’s own role in Pakistan’s political economy.

Pakistan’s military also favors maintaining hostility toward India, a stance that keeps defense spending high even as the country faces competing economic priorities. This approach also strengthened the military’s control over the country.