The prosperous monarchies of the Persian Gulf are facing the most serious obstacles to food security since the international food emergency of 2008, as the Iran war threatens maritime hubs and impedes transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict in the Middle East evaluates tactics put in place after 2008, when skyrocketing food costs prompted Gulf states to shift to import-intensive frameworks aimed at injecting capital into overseas agricultural businesses.
This approach replaced costly initiatives that had previously attempted to increase local cultivation of staple grains, but struggled against the territory’s harsh environment and water scarcity. Saudi Arabia, for example, began phasing out its internal wheat cultivation project in 2008 to transition to almost total dependence on foreign sources.
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Price jumps and product shortages
Currently, with international logistics disrupted and national airspace closed in a zone that is 80-90% dependent on imported food, price spikes and product shortages are expected.
Analysts warn that even short hurdles in Hormuz, requiring diversions from primary docks to smaller facilities, will cause significant friction. Reuters.
Most of the key terminals in the Persian Gulf – including Dubai’s Jebel Ali and major facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and on the east coast of Saudi Arabia – are located where the majority of maritime traffic must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian strikes this week targeted several of these vital arteries, including Jebel Ali, the region’s largest container terminal, halting operations for several hours.
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“With more than 70% of the GCC’s food imported through the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf states face shortages if the war persists,” said Neil Quilliam, a fellow at the Chatham House think tank. Reuters.
“Although the GCC countries have taken steps to diversify suppliers and secure enough business to withstand the outages, it may only take a few months. At this point, price increases and longer delivery times will start to hit the markets,” Quilliam said.
Retail employees informed Reuters that shelves remain mostly full, even if distributors need more time to restock certain items. Dubai temporarily eased cargo restrictions this week to keep supplies moving. The launch of Iranian strikes on the Persian Gulf this Saturday triggered a large-scale rally and caused a momentary drop in supply that heightened public alarm – a test for potential future disruptions.
Emirati ports outside the Strait of Hormuz have limited capacity
Emirati non-waterway ports have limited capacity. Khorfakkan handles 5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), while Fujairah handles less than 1 million; both would seek to compensate for the loss of throughput at Khalifa Port in Jebel Ali or Abu Dhabi. These limitations have not yet fully manifested themselves and United Arab Emirates said its emergency stockpile of essential commodities covers four to six months of requirements. She urged citizens to report any unreasonable price increases through a dedicated hotline.
Commodities such as bananas, which decay quickly, are uniquely vulnerable to any maritime rerouting that increases travel time. Transporting perishable food by air once airspace is restored to shorten the journey will increase costs.
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In addition to investments abroad to guarantee access to the main agricultural centers, Gulf Nations over the past twenty years, they have also built sophisticated silos capable of holding hundreds of thousands of tons of staple grains. These facilities provide a cushion for long-life staples such as wheat, rice and cooking oils.
The UAE inaugurated its Fujairah grain elevators in 2016 on the Indian Ocean coast of the Strait of Hormuz with a capacity of roughly 300,000 metric tons. The location was chosen tactically to bypass Hormuz, given that Iran had previously threatened to block the canal whenever hostilities with Western powers escalated. Regional synergy among Gulf Cooperation Council participants will be vital to preventing food deficits, but the six-nation alliance has historically found consistent coordination difficult.
