OFFSIDE: Too many goals at the 2026 World Cup? Wait for the elimination rounds…

Ted Lasso was a rare silver lining during the dark days of COVID. When the world went into lockdown, an American football coach running a football team had the unenviable job of not only coaching a team in a sport he didn’t know, but also lifting the spirits of the world on its darkest days. And against all odds, Ted Lasso did it and finally made Americans fall in love with a sport that was entirely associated with suburban moms and minivans.Until then, the accepted wisdom was that football was not high-scoring and fast-paced like baseball, basketball, hockey, and American football, and therefore would not appeal to the American mind. Perhaps that’s one of the reasons why this World Cup, co-hosted by North America, has been one of the loosest-scoring tournaments in recent memory.Football lovers tried to offer various reasons for this. Some blame hydration breaks. Others point to a ball that is seemingly harder to catch and has a mind of its own in the air. Some blame the 48-team World Cup for leading to lopsided matches because we’ve never seen a nation get beaten 7-1. Sunday League purists claim that strict refereeing prevents defenders from kicking bollocks out of forwards.But at least the numbers aren’t made up. After 54 matches, this edition has 161 goals. That’s 2.98 per game. Qatar 2022 finished with 172 goals in 64 matches at 2.69 per game. Russia 2018 managed 2.64. South Africa 2010 was 2.27 per match.Is it just the illusions in the group stage or is there more to it? Because group stages lie. They often flatter and exaggerate like life insurance agents.

Golden Boot Race

The race for the Golden Boot looks just as ridiculous. Messi already has five goals. In many World Cups, that number would get you a gong. Vinicius Jr., Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland each stuck with four, randomly ranked by hunger. On three are Deniz Undav, Johan Manzambi, Matheus Cunha, Ismael Saibari and Jonathan David. Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kane and a host of others are lurking for two.

Have a ball

The ball also became part of the story, and the Adidas Trionda was unfairly compared to the 2010 Jabulani, which was the most hated ball since a meteor wiped out the dinosaurs. Former England goalkeeper Joe Hart has raised suspicions about the ball, pointing out that even elite players are being tricked into moving awkwardly by it. The Trionda has a four-panel construction and deep seams that can give the ball a mind of its own and make it difficult for the goalkeeper.

Defense where are you?

However, it’s not always just about the ball. Fans said that defense had become a lost art in the game. Too many umpires have gotten rid of the brawlers, the hard tacklers, the men who stuck their heads where the angels feared to tread. Opta’s defensive error figures show that 25 errors led directly to goals, compared to 37 across the entire 2018 and 2022 World Cups combined.Some of it is technique and some of it is down to bad touches, clearances and goalkeepers panicking when Erling Haaland hits them. Of course, there are tales of goalkeepers from small nations like Cape Verde or Curacao, or how Carlos Queiroz’s Ghana covered England’s attack.The own goals tell a similar story: Reuters reported seven own goals in the first 10 days, with the tournament threatening a record 12 from 2018. Add in five substitutions, tired midfields, tighter defending in the VAR era and a greater difference in quality at the 48-team World Cup, and the points surge makes sense.

Wait for the knockout stages?

But this points to a different kind of problem. As we move towards the business end, the tournaments get tighter. Brazil 2014, for example, had 2.83 per game in the group stage and 2.19 in the knockout stages. Germany 2016 saw 2.44 in the group stages and 1.88 in the knockout stages. 2002 he had 2.71 per game, with knockouts he dropped to 1.94. Of course there are exceptions. Qatar 2022 and Russia 2018 both had a high number of goals.The real defensive pressure usually comes once the tournament reaches the quarterfinals and beyond. This is when teams stop chasing goal difference, stop playing open final group games and start treating every mistake as a career-ending administrative error. Maybe that’s why Germany’s demolition of Brazil 7:1 lives on in the memory even today.Time will tell if the goal fiesta continues into the knock-out stages, where defenses will be more equipped, forwards and attackers will become sharper, and we will find out if the group stage was just a beautiful anomaly.

Showdown in third place

And now comes the most undignified waiting room of the tournament. With only eight of the 12 third-placed teams advancing, four points should be close to a boarding pass, making Bosnia and Herzegovina all but safe. The three-point package – Sweden, Croatia, South Korea, Algeria, Paraguay and Scotland – is where the real blood pressure lives as goal difference now matters as much as goals. Cape Verde and Belgium, both at two, are still breathing but need help. DR Congo, Ecuador and Senegal are in the danger zone, where another result elsewhere could turn hope into baggage.That’s the hidden price of all those goals. Every 90th-minute consolation, every own goal, every keeper’s save is now sitting on the table as evidence in court. The elimination race has already started, only some teams are watching from their hotel rooms. The top eight teams in third place qualify, with points first, then goal difference, goals scored, fair play and FIFA ranking used as tiebreakers.

Meme Watch

And the winner: