The regime and Iran’s military leadership are preparing for a possible war with the United States, which is amassing troops and weapons on its doorstep. The threat of a US attack comes on the heels of the Islamic Republic’s leadership surviving the biggest threat it has faced since the 1979 revolution.
Unlike in the past, the US is reportedly planning a major strike inside Iran that could very well topple the theocratic regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But that’s not the only existential threat facing Iran right now—a quiet but much bigger crisis is brewing in Iran.
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Iran water crisis
Iran is running out of water! Yes, the biggest threat to Iran as a country is not any external forces but mother nature.
Iran is currently in its sixth consecutive year of drought, with the 2024–25 water year one of the driest on record, with rainfall 45 percent below normal.
Back-to-back years of drought have led to what many call “water bankruptcy,” with water levels in many of the country’s most critical reservoirs reaching historic lows, with some nearly dry.
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Tehran is approaching day zero
The Greater Tehran metropolitan area, home to about 15 million people, roughly 20 percent of the country’s population, is among the worst-affected regions.
Tehran faces “day zero” scenarios as the city may run out of water and reservoirs are nearly empty due to years of drought and poor management.
Decades of over-extraction of groundwater have also resulted in parts of Tehran sinking by up to 30 centimeters per year.
Iran proposes capital transfer
Things got so bad in Tehran that in late 2025, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that the city might have to be evacuated.
According to Pezeshkian, pressure on water, land and infrastructure has left the government “with no choice” but to act.
“When we said we had to move the capital, we didn’t even have enough budget. If we had, maybe it would have happened. The reality is that we no longer have a choice, it’s an obligation,” he said in November 2025.
While there is no official word on where the new Iranian capital will be built, the likely location is said to be the southern coastal region of Makran, around the port city of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman.
But building a brand new capital will not be cheap and is estimated to cost between $75 billion and $100 billion, an amount that Iran’s cash-strapped regime cannot afford.
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How was Iran’s pursuit of food self-sufficiency
Although Iran is naturally dry and consecutive years of low rainfall have contributed to the crisis, critics have pointed out that the current crisis is the result of years of mismanagement.
Despite being a water-scarce country, Iranian authorities have diverted up to 90 percent of the country’s water for irrigation over the decades, saying it is necessary for the Islamic Republic’s food self-sufficiency.
This includes water-intensive crops such as rice and almonds.
Poor water management
The government controls all water in Iran, both surface and underground, as it is considered national wealth and public property managed by the state. But years of mismanagement have made the distribution system highly inefficient, resulting in about 25 percent of water being lost through leakage or theft.
Key things
- Iran’s water crisis is largely caused by government mismanagement and decades of over-extraction.
- The Greater Tehran Metropolitan Area is facing severe water shortages and potential evacuations.
- The government’s failure to address water scarcity could lead to significant political and social upheaval.