Offseason NFL is in full swing, and while the upcoming NFL design will be even more shaking, there was no lack of changes in the changing list. The biggest, of course, came to Quarterback. We are still waiting for one big domino (Aaron Rodgers) to fall, but we have seen huge shifts in the QB landscape. No. 1, of course, Seattle Seahawks Trading Geno Smith on Las Vegas Raiders before signed the former Quarterback Minnesota Vikings Sam Darnold to be their new caller signal.
How have these movements and everyone else have influenced the views of their teams for the 2025 season so far? It’s a bit like asking: Who was the biggest winners and offseason loser so far? We will try to answer this analytically using our NFL projection model.
Before we get there, it carries a repetition: a lot can change. Teams have a lot of time to change their position in these charts. But we wanted to explore where things were right now. How much did some teams added? How many teams have lost?
To measure it, my model uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns the value to each NFL player. Think about this value about how much a player affects the span of the expected winning percentage of a single game.
Then I went through each transaction made of this offseason and calculated the added value or lost (up to 25 March). Because I only look at how these movements are influenced by each team for the 2025 season, my model does not take into account the length of the contract or money spent on contracts. It is also important to realize that this process is evaluated only by the players of the changing teams. Players who signed with their teams are not included because the values of these players have already been included in their team’s screenings.
With this explanation of the way, there is a look at how many expected points each NFL team added or lost this offseason.
The five largest winners
Las Vegas Raiders
I’m not sure how no list includes robbers at the top, or at least inside the first three, after landing Smith. The list of robbers is not ready to compete for the playoffs, especially on the praised AFC West, but have strengthened the most important position of sport with Quarterback, which has shown that it can give you a fixed floor as an average QB league with more capacity. And with Quarterback (probably) locked in the next few seasons, the new Pete Carroll coach can focus on getting talent to fill the rest of the list.
New York Giants
The giants were wise to keep the QB position after Jameis Winston’s signing last week. Now it will become their deposit with the newly signed Russell Wilson, who runs accusations until 2025. Now we will see if they want to add a newcomer to the mix in April. In addition to their solid launch in QB, the giants have been made to defend several nice movements by adding the safety of Jevon Holland and the corner plot Paulson Adebo, while at the same time improved the depth of their leading seven. The giants were not far from something significant, but quietly did a good job that opel the list in a position they still need to find a long -term answer.
New England Patriots
The patriots continued on Tuesday evening in their expenditure expenditure and added a stellar wide STEFON Digg receiver to the admission group that needed No. 1. And maybe that’s it. He probably shrinks on what you think of Harold Landry III, as on the peripheral Rusher. My model thinks Landry is fine – and that’s not a bad thing. The average players on the list can be good if you can put stars around them. Knowledge factor Landry with the new head coach Mike Vrabel and you understand why New England has taken a step. The offensive tools Morgan Moses and Milton Williams are other accessories that my model likes, and if you think Landry will be better in this new system, you can easily argue for patriots who jump giants in these ladders and even threaten robbers for the highest place.
Indianapolis Colts
My model loved the signature of Charvarius Ward and classified it as one of the most influential movements so that this offseason does not include Quarterback. Although there is a certain risk – Ward is 28 years old – changing scenery can be what the veteran horn must return to form as one of the best defensive back in the league. Pair the department’s signature with the addition of a safety cam bynum and Colts have done an excellent job to upgrade the secondary, which is essential.
Washington commanders
The commanders got to the business market rather than in a free agency and my model liked what they did. Laremy Tunsil remains one of the better left -hand tools in the league, and that was where Washington needed an upgrade. Meanwhile, the wide deebo receiver Samuel s. He was supposed to throw in this Washington offense with his versatility and pair well with the set of QB Jayden Daniels. Adding the corner interest Jonathan Jones was another interesting move and the one I liked. It is there (31) and did not have the biggest season 2024, but if it is reflected in some way, beware of the commander (again) this season.
The five largest losers
New York Jets
The loss of Rodgers could be compensated by the addition of Justin Fields, but there were still some major losses. Davante Adams remains a very good wide receiver, even though he gets there to age; Moses is still high -quality tools; And according to my projections, the biggest loss is DJ Reed. Reed has been a good corner for some time and it will be difficult to replace it. I do not necessarily disagree with letting these players walk, given the state of the list and the price tags that they would take to keep them in the city, but there is no debate that Jets has lost some best talent in this offseason.
San Francisco 49ers
This evaluation should not be a surprise to watch Offseason San Francisco, which recorded a mass exodus of quality players. I have already talked about how much my model likes Ward, but 49ers also lost Samuel, Jordan Mason, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufang, Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Isaac Yiadoom. Perhaps it is the price of business after paying back Christian McCaffrey and the wide Brandon Aiyuk receiver before the new Quarterback Brock Purdy contract, but 49ers is in the middle of a transitional period and shows the status of their list.
Philadelphia Eagles
One of the by -products of the Super Bowl victory or just the competitiveness in NFL is that the players in your team earn a significant increase. That’s exactly how it goes. Last year, Eagles and Chiefs near this list were a free agency and both achieved a Super Bowl, so all hope did not get lost in Philadelphia, especially with so many talents on the list. But no matter how you shake it, Philadelphia will try to replace a lot of films from this year’s championship, winning the championship like Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay Jr., CJ Gardner-Johnson and Isaiah Rodgers.
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys will remain here to the east of NFC East and will try to reinforce their list primarily through a proposal on which they are quite decent, rather than a free agency. The losses of Demarcus Lawrence, Jourdan Lewis and Chauncey Golston are daunting (even if we let Lewis walk after one of his best periods is not the worst decision) and the loss of Zack Martin will be retired. He was certainly around his peak, but there was still a quality offensive and it is always difficult to find.
Seattle Seahawks
What did you expect after they have exchanged your starting Quarterback and a caliber receiver for Bowl? If it is a consolation for Seahawks fans, it is impressive that they are not the last on this list. This is because they replaced Smith and DK Metcalf with Darnold and Cooper Kupp to help to equalize these losses while adding Lawrence to their defense. The model is a skeptical darnold can replicate its success from Minnesota, while Kupp and Lawrence are for their prime numbers and are concerned about the injury, so it is no surprise that Seahawks will still be placed on the bottom.
(Photos of John Lynch, Pete Carrolla and Geno Smith: Ezra Shaw and Tom Hauck / Getty Images)
