Voters in New Jersey and Virginia head to the polls on Tuesday (Nov. 4) in the first major statewide elections since Republican President Donald Trump took office – contests seen as early tests of voter sentiment and political momentum heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
For Democrats out of power in Washington, victories in both races could provide a much-needed morale boost. For Republicans, wins would signal continued voter approval of Trump’s populist agenda just nine months into his new term.
New Jersey: Mikie Sherrill vs. Jack Ciattarelli
The New Jersey governor’s race has become one of the most closely watched contests in the country, pitting Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill against Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Sherrill, 53, a retired Navy helicopter pilot, holds a narrow but consistent lead in most polls. Ciattarelli, 63, a small business owner and former state representative, is running for governor for the third time.
The race broke state spending records, pouring more than $200 million into the campaign, including $34 million from national party committees.
Historical stakes
A Sherrill victory would mark the first time in 60 years that New Jersey has elected a governor from the same party to three consecutive terms. However, if Ciattarelli wins, he will become only the second governor in nine elections to come from the same party as an incumbent.
Despite Democrats holding a two-to-one voter registration advantage, Trump’s relatively strong performance in 2024 — losing the state by only six points — has boosted Republican hopes.
Recent polls show Sherrill up by five to eight percentage points, though Thursday’s Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll showed the race nearly even at 49%-48%.
Trump’s shadow appears
Trump’s decision to freeze federal funding for the Hudson River Tunnel project — a vital link for New Jersey commuters — became a flashpoint. Sherrill accused Ciattarelli of being overly loyal to the president, pointing to a comment he made in a debate that gave Trump an “A” in his first months in office.
Ciattarelli, who kept some distance from Trump during his 2021 run, has embraced him more openly this year, though he hasn’t fully embraced the MAGA brand. “He had to do a pretty delicate dance this time,” said Ashley Koning of the Eagleton Center at Rutgers University.
Virginia: Abigail Spanberger vs. Winsome Earle-Sears
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, 46, a former congresswoman and CIA officer, leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, 61, in most polls.
Spanberger’s campaign focused on economic stability, abortion rights, and public education, while Earle-Sears focused on crime, taxes, and parental controls in schools.
Democrats see Virginia as a critical firewall after several close statewide races in recent years.
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