Former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, Leader of Opposition in Bihar Assembly Tejashwi Yadav, RJD MP Sanjay Yadav, Vikassheel Insaan Party Chief Mukesh Sahni, Bihar Congress President Rajesh Kumar and CPI (ML) General Secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya at a press conference in Patna on 23. October Photo credit: ANI
Bihar’s political duopoly—the Mahagatbandhan (grand alliance) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—seems well-entrenched, leaving behind a shrinking space for any third or other political formation.
A noticeable shift in the pattern of voter preferences is evident in the 2015 result, when a grand alliance consisting of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), its traditional ally the Congress, and the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) gave a drubbing to the NDA-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). At that time, the combined vote share of both main formations exceeded 75%.
The grand alliance’s vote share was 41.84%, with 178 seats out of the total 243, while the NDA secured about 34% with 58 seats. This election was the only instance of the JD(U) facing the electorate along with the RJD and the Congress. On all other occasions it was with the BJP as part of the NDA.
Before 2015, the collective strength of these two formations was close to two-thirds of the polled votes. It was about 65%, both during October-November 2005, when the NDA finally ended Rashtriya Janata Dal founder Lalu Prasad’s 15-year rule, and in 2010, when the NDA won a whopping 206 seats. In the first assembly elections (February 2005) held after Jharkhand was carved out of Bihar in November 2000, the total vote share was about 53%.
The strength and appeal of the main formations is such that those who tried their luck independently did not last and ended up joining one of the two coalitions. It is not that the formations do not benefit from the presence of smaller parties. A prominent example is the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation, which faced elections alone or with smaller parties until 2015. It joined the grand alliance five years ago and won 12 of the 19 seats it contested.
On various occasions in the last 20 years, two prominent Dalit leaders—Ram Vilas Paswan, who founded the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and his son Chirag Paswan, who heads the LJP (RV-Ram Vilas)—have tried to make a big deal of independence from the two formations. In the survey of February 2005, LJP won 29 seats. Although he was widely expected to play kingmaker, the circumstances were such that the Assembly was dissolved by the then President APJ Abdul Kalam in May 2005 before it even met once, a first of its kind in the country. The continued presence of the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM-S), a breakaway from the JD(U), in the NDA is another example of the interdependence of the players concerned.
The entry of the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), founded by poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, into the fray has sparked debate over the possibility of the JSP ending the state duopoly, just as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and YSRCP have done in Delhi and Andhra Pradesh. However, with Mr. Kishor opting out of the election fray, it remains to be seen whether the JSP will be able to dislodge the grand alliance or the NDA to third place.
Published – 23 Oct 2025 21:17 IST
